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10 Years of Odds On
Signal vs. Noise: AI Stocks and the Expectations Trap
Spring Cleaning: Winning by Getting Organized
Announcing the Launch of LVIG
Author: Matt Hall
Don’t Hire Us Because You Like Us

Don’t Hire Us Because You Like Us
There’s something worth saying out loud.
You shouldn’t work with us just because you like us.
When we meet someone new, I often ask how they chose the person they’re currently working with.
The answers are usually some version of:
“He’s a neighbor.”
“She’s a friend of the family.”
“We met through our kids’ sports.”
All perfectly understandable.
But those aren’t the answers I’m hoping to hear.
It would be refreshing to hear someone say:
“Our values really align.”
“I believe in their investment approach.”
“They’ve given us planning advice that has actually changed our financial lives.”
Because when something as important as your financial life is involved, that’s what should matter.
Likability is certainly a factor. We enjoy it as much as anyone. It makes relationships easier. It makes conversations more natural. And it tends to persist for years.
But it’s not a sufficient reason to choose someone to manage your life savings.
That’s where we’re different.
You should work with us because we believe in something.
Because our approach is grounded in decades of academic research, not opinion or prediction.
Because we’ve built real strategies, like the work behind EBI and LVIG, that are designed with intention, not assembled to match a trend.
Because we care deeply about financial planning. Not just portfolios, but the decisions that actually shape your life.
And because we are fiduciaries. We work for our clients. Not a brokerage firm. Not a bank. Just you.
In short, if you believe what we believe, that’s the foundation for a long and healthy relationship.
If you like us too, that’s even better. It makes the relationship more enjoyable. It makes conversations easier. It probably makes the whole experience better.
But it’s a bonus. The icing on the cake.
Because over time, we’ve found that the best outcomes don’t come from chasing what feels right in the moment. They come from committing to a sound approach and sticking with it. Taking the long view.
Performance, in that sense, isn’t the goal. It’s the result.
The best outcomes we’ve seen come from staying put when it was hardest to do so.
That doesn’t always win the popularity contest.
But in the long run, what matters isn’t who you like the most.
It’s who you can rely on when it counts.
So you can invest your money and your time in the people you actually like.
Take the long view,

10 Years of Odds On
In 1999, a book changed the direction of my life.
At the time, I had recently dropped out of law school and was trying to figure out what was next. I was in that phase of life where you have plenty of energy and curiosity, very little skill, and a strong desire to do something meaningful that helps other people.
Around that time, I met Larry Swedroe.
Larry had written a book called The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need. I still remember sitting down with it and realizing that the first 100- pages quietly reshaped how I thought, not just about money and investing, but about what I wanted to do in my professional life. The approach felt more like a calling than a job.
Until then, I thought investing was about forecasts, predictions, and confident opinions about the future. Larry’s work introduced me to something very different. It was grounded in data and evidence. It showed that humility, discipline, and a long-term perspective were far more powerful than trying to outguess markets and pick winners.
It felt logical, rational, and deceptively simple to me. It smelled like the truth. And I loved it.
That realization set me on a course that eventually led to the creation of Hill Investment Group.
Years later, when we started the firm, I ran into an unexpected problem. We would give clients books like Larry’s because the ideas were so important, and we wanted them to understand our approach at a deeper level. Unfortunately, many people simply wouldn’t read them. Not because the books weren’t good. They were excellent. However, they were technical and written primarily for professionals rather than investors.
This dilemma got me thinking…and searching. I wanted something that could open the door a little wider for readers. Something relatable, understandable, memorable, and useful.
So I tried an experiment.
Instead of writing a technical guide, I “buried the vegetables” inside a story.
The result was Odds On: The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor. It follows my own coming of age in the investment world, where readers encounter the mentors, lessons, and ideas that shaped the philosophy behind our firm.
A few years after the book came out, I attended a book party on Park Avenue in New York surrounded by other authors. I struck up a conversation with a writer who had created a popular series of illustrated books. After listening to the story of why I had written Odds On, he paused and said something that stuck with me.
I had never heard the phrase before, so he explained.
The first ring develops the idea. The second ring takes that idea and translates it so a broader audience can understand it.
That description felt exactly right.
Larry was part of the first ring. His work changed how I saw investing. Odds On was my attempt to carry those ideas outward in a way that more people could absorb. More real investors, not just practitioners.
When the manuscript first circulated, a few agents told me the book would fail. It wasn’t prescriptive enough. I was warned that most non-fiction business books go nowhere and help no one, especially if the author does not already have a significant following.
Twelve years after writing it and ten years after publication, the story has been far more powerful and interesting than I ever imagined.
The book has traveled widely. It has been read by students, investors, and advisors across the country. It eventually made its way to the Netherlands, where it was translated into Dutch. Along the way, it sparked conversations, friendships, podcast interviews, speaking invitations, and thoughtful notes from readers around the world.
In many cases, the book became the first handshake between us.
Some readers eventually became clients. Some became collaborators and friends. Some changed the investing philosophy of their entire firm. A few even joined our team.
And in a way, the book changed my life too. Not because of copies sold or opportunities created, but because of the relationships that have grown out of it. Over the years, we’ve received more trust, gratitude, and kindness from long-time clients than I ever imagined possible. Compliance rules prevent us from sharing testimonials, but I can say this: the real riches have come from the people.
What began as an attempt to explain a philosophy ended up creating something much more meaningful: a community of people who believe in taking the long view.
Ideas move through rings. Someone discovers them. Someone translates them. Eventually, someone passes them forward.
That ripple effect is what we’re celebrating in this month’s journal.
Ten years after publication, we’re looking back at the journey of Odds On — the ideas behind it, the unexpected places it traveled, and the people it connected us with along the way.
And if the ideas resonate with you, perhaps the next ring starts with something simple: share the book with someone who might benefit from it.
Take the long view,

Matt Hall
20 Years In. Just Getting Started.

Recently, our Hill team gathered at Round Hill (a storied boutique resort) in Jamaica to mark an important milestone: 20 years of serving the families who have placed their trust in us.
It was a true celebration.
Yes, islands, especially Jamaica, have a way of slowing you down. But what made the time meaningful was the chance to pause together and reflect on what has been built over two decades and, more importantly, why it was built in the first place.
As I looked around the group, I kept coming back to something Rick Hill impressed upon me early on: great firms endure because of people who care deeply, take quiet ownership, and hold themselves to a high standard, whether anyone is watching or not.
That spirit was unmistakable throughout the trip.
There was plenty of laughter. Real connection. The kind of easy camaraderie that only develops over years of working alongside people you respect and trust. We also invited spouses to join us, and that added a dimension I did not fully appreciate until I saw it unfold. Our work at Hill asks a great deal of the people who choose this path. Having spouses there brought more context, more gratitude, and more heart to the experience. It reminded all of us that the strength of Hill is supported by families who quietly stand behind the scenes.
The pinnacle for me came on our final night together. One by one, team members stood up and shared their favorite memories from their time at Hill. Some were funny. Some were deeply moving. All of them pointed to the same thing: a group of people who genuinely care about one another and about doing work that matters.
In that moment, it felt like we had quietly crossed into a new level of shared commitment. Not a finish line. Something better. A deeper understanding of what we are building together and why it matters.
Each year, during our time together, we present the Rick Hill Award. It is one of the traditions we hold most dear because it honors the kind of steady, values-driven contribution that Rick modeled from the very beginning. I am excited to share more about this year’s recipient below.
20 years in, Hill has never been stronger. We remain focused, grateful, and energized about the road ahead.
If you have been with us for part of this journey, thank you. Your trust is the reason moments like this matter.
And the most meaningful part of the story is still ahead.
Take the long view,
Matt