On June 11th, Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX (SPCX), began trading on Nasdaq. The headlines were everywhere: A $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in stock market history. The media is suggesting that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

The noise around IPOs is likely to continue throughout 2026, with more large IPOs planned this year, including OpenAI (known for ChatGPT) and Anthropic (known for Claude.ai).

These companies may change the world as we know it. Maybe not. As investors, we can be excited about these companies, but the evidence tells a clear story about IPOs and how we should treat them in our portfolio.

What the Evidence Shows on IPOs

Based on research from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), we can examine IPO performance across two timeframes: short and medium-term.

Over the short term (first trading day), IPOs typically perform well. This phenomenon is often referred to as the “IPO Pop.” Insiders and some large institutions can buy shares at the IPO price (unavailable to the public) and sell them at higher prices on the open market. Thus, the positive return from the IPO Pop is reserved for insiders and unavailable to the average investor. Individuals can only access shares on the open market meaning after the shares start trading. Often, investors may have to pay higher prices, thereby decreasing (or eliminating) the day-one returns that we see in the data and which the media loves to hype.

After the IPO Pop, over the next six to twelve months after listing, IPOs tend to lag the broader US stock market by 2-3% per year. Please reread the last sentence.

Obviously, these trends may not happen every time. Any individual IPO stock may be different. But the point is that, on average, IPOs tend not to be great investments, particularly when they have high valuations and negative profits, like SpaceX.

An Evidence-Based Alternative

There is good news here. As always, we can leverage this data and evidence to build better portfolios. The funds that we use at HIG typically wait for the IPO hype to fade and for insiders’ lock-up periods to end (increasing the supply of shares) before buying newly listed companies. What does this mean? We expect that, over time, all of our clients will have an appropriate allocation to many of these newly listed companies in the six to twelve-month timeframe as they meet the evidence-based criteria for inclusion in the portfolio.

The Temptation Is Real

We understand the emotional pull. When something feels “historic,” sitting on the sidelines can feel like missing out.

As advisors, our job is to keep clients focused on what the evidence says, not what the moment feels like. The same discipline that keeps you from panic-selling in a downturn is the same discipline that keeps you from buying into a frenzy.

A great company is worth rooting for. It is not always worth buying.

If you’d like to continue this discussion, please reach out to me at ryan@hillinvestmentgroup.com.

At Hill Investment Group, much of what we do is centered around helping clients prepare, not just for markets, but for life.

Some planning is exciting. Some is practical. Some is the kind you hope never becomes urgent.

A Power of Attorney falls into that last category.

A Power of Attorney, often called a POA, is a legal document that allows you to name someone you trust to act on your behalf during your lifetime if you are unable to do so yourself.

It may not feel especially meaningful when everything is going smoothly. But in a difficult moment, it can be one of the most helpful planning tools your family has.

The purpose is simple: to give the right person the ability to help in the way you intended.

That might mean helping pay bills, manage accounts, coordinate with your advisory team, request distributions, or keep important financial work moving while your family focuses on what matters most.

This kind of planning is not really about paperwork.

It is about care.

It is about reducing confusion, easing the burden on the people you love, and creating clarity before life gets complicated.

There are different types of Power of Attorney documents, and the right version depends on your situation, your state, and the guidance of your estate attorney. A durable Power of Attorney is often especially important because it can remain in effect if you become incapacitated.

It is also important to know that a Power of Attorney only applies while you are living. At death, authority shifts according to your estate plan.

If you already have a Power of Attorney, it is worth making sure it is current, properly executed, and understood by the people who may need to use it. If you do not have one, this may be a good conversation to start with an estate planning attorney.

We are happy to help you think through how these pieces fit into your broader financial life and, if helpful, connect you with someone from our trusted network.

A little planning now can make a hard moment easier later.

As always, we’re here to help you take the long view.

If you’d like to talk more about this, please reach out to us and schedule time to talk.

Ten years after Odds On was first published, Matt received a note from a fellow advisor that felt worth sharing.

Robert DeNovo, a private wealth advisor in Knoxville, wrote to say that he first came across the book through Dimensional, Larry Swedroe, or perhaps a recommendation that followed from both. However he found it, the impact stayed with him.

“Odds On, and later your podcast, was a catalyst to build a better experience for our clients. We, and they, are better for it.”

That says a lot.

Not because it is praise for the book, though we are grateful for that. It matters because it points to something bigger. The right ideas travel. They move from a book to a conversation, from one advisor to another, from a team meeting to a better client experience.

That was always the hope behind Odds On.

The book was written to make evidence-based investing easier to understand and easier to live with. It was never meant to be a technical manual. It was meant to help people see that a disciplined financial life does not have to be complicated. But it does require clarity, patience, and a willingness to let evidence guide the way.

Robert’s note also mentioned that when his team brought on a new associate, one of the first resources he shared was Matt’s podcast, especially the conversation with Danny Meyer. That detail felt fitting.

At Hill, we have always believed that the client experience matters as much as the advice itself. People need more than smart portfolios. They need a sense of calm. They need clear communication. They need a guide who helps them make better decisions when the stakes are high.

Odds On was never just about investing. It is about behavior, trust, and the kind of partnership that helps people stay focused on what matters.

Ten years later, it is meaningful to hear that those ideas still resonate with other advisors, with other teams, for other clients we may never meet. That is one of the best outcomes a book can have.

It keeps working.

It keeps traveling.

And, as Robert put it, people are better for it.

Thanks to Robert for allowing us to share his comments and for his support.

Request a copy of Odds On here.