Carl Richards, a longtime friend of the firm and someone many of you know through our events, books, and conversations over the years, generously sent this video in honor of the 10th anniversary of Odds On. Carl’s endorsement was featured on the front cover of the book, and his encouragement has meant a great deal to us from the very beginning.

For newer readers, Carl is the creator of the Sketch Guy column and is widely known for his work helping people think more clearly about money, behavior, and what really matters. He is the author of several books, including The Behavior Gap and his newest release, Your Money, and he also hosts podcasts including Behavior Gap Radio and 50 Fires. We hope this video brings you the same joy it brought us, especially if Odds On has shaped your thinking in some meaningful way too. Carl has a new book released not long ago called Your Money, reach out to us if you’d like a copy. 

At Hill Investment Group, we often say that real financial planning isn’t about being exactly right today—it’s about being less wrong tomorrow.

That may sound strange coming from a team grounded in evidence, logic, and long-term thinking. But we also know life doesn’t follow a straight line. That’s why we believe the most valuable part of financial planning isn’t the plan itself—it’s the process of ongoing planning.

Carl Richards, a friend and fellow long-term thinker, offers a great analogy we love to share:

Airline pilots prepare a flight plan before every trip. Yet when asked how often the flight goes exactly according to that plan, the answer is: rarely.

Course corrections are built into the process because the unexpected is expected. Weather changes. Winds shift. But the destination remains the same—and they keep adjusting until they land safely.

The same principle applies to your financial life. We build your plan using the best data available—making thoughtful assumptions about returns, taxes, inflation, goals, and more. But the moment the plan is complete, we know one thing for sure: it will be wrong. We just don’t know how yet.

That’s not a flaw. It’s reality.

Real planning is what happens next. It’s the process of revisiting, refining, and adjusting—so you can stay on track, even when the world around you changes.

That’s why our team is here: not just to build your plan, but to keep you flying steady all the way to your destination.

Take the Long View.

That’s the thing about most patterns—they don’t predict the future; they just describe the past.

We’re so good at recognizing patterns that we often see them where they don’t even exist.

One of my favorite examples of this is some research done by David J. Leinweber at Caltech. Apparently, he figured out how to predict the stock market using just three variables:

1- Butter production in the United States and Bangladesh.
2- Sheep populations in the United States and Bangladesh.
3- Cheese production in the United States.

Amazing! Right?

It turns out these three variables predicted 99% of the stock market’s movement!

#TimeToStartAHedgeFund.

Just one problem: The joke’s on us.

While well-intentioned, the constant pursuit of patterns is one of the big behavioral mistakes we make time and again. We look for patterns. And guess what, they absolutely exist. Right up until you try to invest your money based on the pattern. Then *Poof!* They vanish into thin air.

We think if something happened a certain way in the past, then it will surely continue into the future. We start to believe—we desperately want to believe—that this pattern will have predictive value.

But it doesn’t. And that’s the thing about most patterns—they don’t predict the future, they just describe the past.

While some of these silly data mining tricks might be interesting to talk about, they don’t actually help us.

Turns out the only thing that does help when it comes to investing success is good behavior. Day in, day out, year after year.

Now that’s a pattern I can endorse.

-Carl Richards (friend of HIG)