On June 11th, Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX (SPCX), began trading on Nasdaq. The headlines were everywhere: A $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in stock market history. The media is suggesting that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

The noise around IPOs is likely to continue throughout 2026, with more large IPOs planned this year, including OpenAI (known for ChatGPT) and Anthropic (known for Claude.ai).

These companies may change the world as we know it. Maybe not. As investors, we can be excited about these companies, but the evidence tells a clear story about IPOs and how we should treat them in our portfolio.

What the Evidence Shows on IPOs

Based on research from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), we can examine IPO performance across two timeframes: short and medium-term.

Over the short term (first trading day), IPOs typically perform well. This phenomenon is often referred to as the “IPO Pop.” Insiders and some large institutions can buy shares at the IPO price (unavailable to the public) and sell them at higher prices on the open market. Thus, the positive return from the IPO Pop is reserved for insiders and unavailable to the average investor. Individuals can only access shares on the open market meaning after the shares start trading. Often, investors may have to pay higher prices, thereby decreasing (or eliminating) the day-one returns that we see in the data and which the media loves to hype.

After the IPO Pop, over the next six to twelve months after listing, IPOs tend to lag the broader US stock market by 2-3% per year. Please reread the last sentence.

Obviously, these trends may not happen every time. Any individual IPO stock may be different. But the point is that, on average, IPOs tend not to be great investments, particularly when they have high valuations and negative profits, like SpaceX.

An Evidence-Based Alternative

There is good news here. As always, we can leverage this data and evidence to build better portfolios. The funds that we use at HIG typically wait for the IPO hype to fade and for insiders’ lock-up periods to end (increasing the supply of shares) before buying newly listed companies. What does this mean? We expect that, over time, all of our clients will have an appropriate allocation to many of these newly listed companies in the six to twelve-month timeframe as they meet the evidence-based criteria for inclusion in the portfolio.

The Temptation Is Real

We understand the emotional pull. When something feels “historic,” sitting on the sidelines can feel like missing out.

As advisors, our job is to keep clients focused on what the evidence says, not what the moment feels like. The same discipline that keeps you from panic-selling in a downturn is the same discipline that keeps you from buying into a frenzy.

A great company is worth rooting for. It is not always worth buying.

If you’d like to continue this discussion, please reach out to me at ryan@hillinvestmentgroup.com.

As we’ve kicked of the official start to summer, many of our clients and friends are looking for some great reading material that different than the New York Times list. Further, after our recent webinar with Marilyn Wechter, we asked her to share a few of her favorite books that explore families and their relationship with money that go a bit deeper than what we could cover in just an hour. Some we’ve highly recommended before and others are new.

Enjoy! If you have any questions about what you read or a book sparks a desire to dig deeper, have a conversation, or hold a family meeting to discuss the topic, we’re here to answer questions and facilitate conversations. That’s how families stay together and multi-generational wealth is both created and perpetuates itself. Open communication.

Here we go:

• The Thin Green Line – Paul Sullivan
• The Art of Spending Money – Morgan Housel (Bonus points if you also listen to Matt’s podcast episode here with Morgan)
• Wealth in Families – Charles Collier

Finally, as we continue to celebrate the 10th Anniversary of Odds On, please consider sending a copy (book, Kindle, or audiobook) to someone you are trying to help whether it be a family member or friend. I say “help” very intentionally because why else would you make any recommendation to anyone? You are simply trying to be helpful, and HIG is working to make it easy for you to show up in that role, because that spirit of helpfulness is one of the qualities we value most in our clients and friends of the firm. Request Odds On here.

We can’t wait to hear from you.

At some point, most people ask themselves if they’re actually okay financially. Not just in a down market, but on a random Thursday.

In reality, this questioning is normal behavior. However, there are some mental strategies available to deal with this that may be incredibly helpful in transforming not just knowing you’re okay from a rational perspective, but genuinely feeling and believing it.

We invite you to join us on May 14, 2026, at Noon CDT, for a live Zoom webinar with Marilyn Wechter, one of the country’s leading financial therapists and wealth counselors, about a framework for knowing where you stand despite the uncertainty going on in life and the world.

This is just another way to help our clients Take the Long View.

Please join us, reserve your spot here.