Playing the Probabilities

Have you ever asked us, “How long is the long view?” If so, this might be for you. After we build you a low-cost, evidence-based investment portfolio, what should you do next? For the most part, pretend like it doesn’t exist. In this example (which only looks at the S&P 500), you’d see a negative result nearly half of the time if you checked your returns on a daily basis. At the other extreme, if you only reviewed results for 20-year time periods, you would have seen positive performance every time.

We got the data from Ben Carlson’s blog (click here) and posted it on the chalkboard in our office as a regular reminder to continue taking the long view.

Hill Investment Group