Welcome to our next article in our “Signal vs. Noise” series, which examines popular claims circulating online or in print. Our goal is to help you separate the signal from the noise. At Hill Investment Group, we believe good advice should be simple, clear, and grounded in evidence — not hype.

“The biggest risk is not having exposure to this transformational technology.” — JPMorgan Wealth Management, January 2026

The story feels so obvious: transformative technology, dominant companies, get in now. But a compelling technology story and a compelling investment are two totally different things. Thus far in 2026, three of the largest AI companies on the planet reported some of their best quarters ever – and watched their stock prices drop. Here’s why that’s not as surprising as it sounds.

A stock’s price is the market’s collective best guess at everything a company will ever earn, discounted to today. It’s like how you can’t get a bargain on a house in a neighborhood that everyone knows is great – that desirability is in the asking price. In general, AI companies’ stocks trade at steep premiums compared to the broader market. That’s not necessarily right or wrong; it’s the market saying, “We expect extraordinary things.”

Exhibits A, B, and C

NVIDIA Corp – the designer of the AI chips that power the data centers behind virtually every major AI application in use today

• February 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for revenue, profits, and future earnings guidance – the stock fell 5.5%

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – the company that physically manufactures chips for NVIDIA, Apple, and virtually every major AI company

• April 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for profits for the fourth consecutive quarter – the stock fell 3%

ASML Holdings – the Dutch company that makes specialized machines used to produce TSMC’s chips; without ASML, there is no modern semiconductor industry

• April 2026 – beat revenue and profits estimates, while increasing their full-year guidance for 2026 – the stock fell 6%

These three companies are worth ~$5.5 trillion combined and are critical parts of the global AI backbone. They delivered, but the market said, “We already knew.”

These examples aren’t a reason to avoid AI investments entirely. Instead, they serve as a timely reminder that stock prices already reflect the market’s expectations, and that expecting a great company to keep being great isn’t the same as expecting a great return.

The more useful question for your financial future isn’t “will AI change the world?” It probably will. The better question is: “Is my portfolio built to succeed regardless of whether these companies meet the market’s sky-high expectations for them?”

Your portfolio already owns AI. At Hill, we invest in global capitalism, which means that you already own NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, and every other company driving or benefiting from this technology as part of a diversified portfolio. Put simply, you get to participate in the upside if AI exceeds expectations, but you’re also not overexposed if these companies fall short.

Decades of financial research show that the most reliable path to investment success is owning the whole market, staying diversified, and tilting toward companies that are attractively priced with strong profits. Instead of taking a bet on (or against) AI, you have a strategy built to succeed whether or not AI stocks live up to the hype.

Our job is simple but critically important: put the odds of investment success in your favor by sticking to the evidence, not the headlines.

Disclosure

We’re grateful to have Larry Swedroe as both a longtime friend to Hill Investment Group and a foundational voice in the evidence-based investing community. For decades, Larry has helped investors cut through noise, resist prediction-driven thinking, and stay anchored in the data – an approach that has shaped our work and benefited the clients we serve.

In his latest appearance on the October 22nd Excess Returns podcast (the same show our CIO, Matt Zenz, joined recently), Larry brings that perspective to today’s big conversations around tariffs, immigration, AI, and market structure.

“HTC” WARNING: Be forewarned, this is Highly Technical Content, best consumed by the heavy-duty fact finders in our audience and to all those who want to take a deeper dive into why we believe what we believe.

If you only have a few minutes…

Jump to 33:05, where Larry explains why smaller, more nimble funds can access deeper exposures in areas like small-cap value – an insight that reinforces one of the key advantages of our own approach to managing The Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). 

It’s a thoughtful, wide-ranging conversation, and we’re thankful for Larry’s ongoing partnership and the clarity he brings to evidence-based investing.

Welcome to our next article in our “finfluencer” series which examines popular claims circulating online or in print. Our goal is to help you separate the signal from the noise. In other words, what matters and what doesn’t. At Hill Investment Group, we believe good advice should be simple, clear, and grounded in evidence, not hype.

Heard something at work, on the course, or on social media that made you pause? Send it to zenz@hillinvestmentgroup.com. We’ll help unpack it. Submissions are confidential. With your permission, we may quote an anonymized version in a future post.

This Month’s Topic: Currency Debasement

The term currency debasement (the act of reducing its value) has recently become a favorite talking point among financial influencers. The claim is that the U.S. dollar is “losing value,” and that the supposed evidence lies in the rising prices of gold and bitcoin. Some interpret this to mean that investors holding dollar-denominated portfolios are quietly falling behind and should buy gold or bitcoin.

This storyline is designed to cause fear and get clicks, but it fundamentally misrepresents how value is created and how real wealth should be measured. Let’s dig in.

Assets vs. Stores of Value

There are two basic categories of things investors can own.

Productive assets – like stocks, bonds, and real estate – create value over time through earnings, interest, or rent. For example, a company may invest in building a factory that manufactures widgets to sell for a profit. When you own a share of that company, you own some portion of those profits, as well as any future profits. These are the types of investments that our clients own in their Hill Investment Group portfolios.

Stores of value – like gold, bitcoin, or fiat currencies (currencies issued by governments, like euros or dollars) – do not create value; they simply represent it. Owning bitcoin doesn’t generate more bitcoin. Stated differently, there is no economic engine in bitcoin or any commodity like gold, silver, or corn, that generates more of that item. Instead, these “stores of value” fluctuate relative to one another as investors’ preferences and supply/demand conditions change.

Owning productive assets means owning a share of future output and innovation. Owning stores of value means holding something that sits still while the world moves around it. Comparing them isn’t apples to oranges – it’s apples to basketballs.

Measuring What Actually Matters

The rise or fall of gold and bitcoin doesn’t determine whether your wealth has been “debased.” Those price movements simply reflect changing exchange rates between stores of value. Measuring your wealth in gold or bitcoin vs. dollars is like measuring your weight in kilograms vs. pounds – the number changes, but you don’t.

What matters is whether your productive assets are growing faster than your liabilities – your living expenses, savings goals, and future spending needs. Inflation, not the price of gold or bitcoin, is what affects your actual purchasing power.

If your portfolio grows faster than inflation, your real wealth is rising – no matter what gold or bitcoin are doing relative to the dollar. You want to invest in assets that you expect to increase in value relative to your liabilities, not assets that are meant to store value.

An Evidence-Based Alternative

At Hill Investment Group, we focus on building globally diversified portfolios that are designed to compound wealth in real, inflation-adjusted terms across decades. A disciplined mix of equities and high-quality fixed income has historically been one of the most effective ways to preserve and grow purchasing power over time.

Unlike commodities or speculative stores of value, productive assets participate in global capitalism, delivering cash flows that rise with the economy and outpace inflation across decades.

The Bottom Line

“Currency debasement” makes for catchy headlines but poor guidance. Gold and bitcoin may surge or stall, but neither creates lasting economic value. A disciplined, evidence-based portfolio – anchored in productive assets – remains the most reliable path to maintaining real purchasing power and achieving your goals in the currency that matters most: your own.

Want to learn more? Set up a time to talk with us here.