When Opening Day arrives, it brings optimism, but there is also a familiar temptation: to focus on what’s happening now instead of what actually matters over time.

I find myself returning to the ideas of Michael Lewis, not just his iconic baseball book Moneyball, but also his recent appearance on the Acquired podcast. The common thread isn’t baseball. It’s perspective.

Moneyball wasn’t really about baseball statistics—it was about seeing differently. The Oakland A’s, constrained by budget, were forced to challenge conventional wisdom. They stopped paying for what was visible (batting averages, body type, “intangibles”) and instead paid for what actually drove outcomes but was underappreciated (on-base percentage). In short: they exploited inefficiency.

In his Acquired conversation, Lewis reflects on a similar dynamic across industries—how markets, people, and institutions repeatedly misprice what truly matters. The lesson isn’t just about being contrarian. It’s about being patient enough to let the truth play out.

That’s where “taking the longview” comes in.

In investing, as in baseball, the scoreboard updates constantly, but the real game unfolds over seasons (even generations!), not innings. Short-term noise is seductive and sometimes scary. It feels actionable. But it’s often just that: noise. The discipline is in identifying what actually compounds over time and then having the temperament to stick with it when it’s temporarily out of favor.

For our clients, that translates into something simple but difficult: staying invested in what works, even when it temporarily doesn’t feel like it. That’s what we’re doing every day. Helping our clients maintain the behavior that pays off in the long term.

The genius of Moneyball wasn’t the data. It was the willingness to endure looking wrong in the short term to be right over the long term. That’s really hard to do!

At Hill Investment Group, that’s the game we’re playing. Not predicting the next pitch, but building a process that wins over full seasons…full lifetimes.

In the end, the real advantage—whether in baseball or investing—isn’t speed. It’s clarity, patience, and the discipline to let time do the heavy lifting. Thank you for taking the long view with us.

If you’d like a new copy of Odds On (The Moneyball of investing) or want to gift it to a friend or family member, click here. We’re happy to share how it just might transform someone’s future and those that come after them.

Carl Richards, a longtime friend of the firm and someone many of you know through our events, books, and conversations over the years, generously sent this video in honor of the 10th anniversary of Odds On. Carl’s endorsement was featured on the front cover of the book, and his encouragement has meant a great deal to us from the very beginning.

For newer readers, Carl is the creator of the Sketch Guy column and is widely known for his work helping people think more clearly about money, behavior, and what really matters. He is the author of several books, including The Behavior Gap and his newest release, Your Money, and he also hosts podcasts including Behavior Gap Radio and 50 Fires. We hope this video brings you the same joy it brought us, especially if Odds On has shaped your thinking in some meaningful way too. Carl has a new book released not long ago called Your Money, reach out to us if you’d like a copy. 

If you’re feeling pulled around by headlines, Odds On was written for moments like this. It’s a reminder that better decisions come from a clear process, not a hot take.

Start with the Intro to Odds On. We’re sharing it as a short PDF, linked below, so you can get a quick taste of the book, or re-read it as a reset when you need one.

Our suggestion: Read the first sentence. Then read it again slowly. Think about it for a minute. Read it one more time. Then dig in. See where the journey takes you. Many others have found the read transformational. Please share your experience!

Read the Odds On Intro 

If you’d like a full copy, we’re happy to send one to you or to someone in your life you’d like to share it with. Physical book, Kindle, or audio. Your choice.

Request Odds On

If you want to talk more about how to put the philosophy into action, email Buddy directly at buddy@hillinvestmentgroup.com. We’ll help you apply these ideas to your situation and map a clear next step.