Does anyone know when to get in and out of the market? Many professionals try, and we’ve heard a few theories from amateur investors lately. It’s tricky to tell fact from fiction. There are a million ways to analyze historical data to find timing patterns that appear to produce attractive returns. The real question you need to ask yourself: “Is there any reason why I should expect that pattern to continue in the future, or is it purely due to chance?”

An example. Over the last thirty years, if you sorted stocks based on the letter of the alphabet they started with, you would see that stocks that began with the letter “M” outperformed those that started with the letter “E.” Is there any reason to suspect this to continue over the next 30 years?

No, clearly, the letter of the alphabet should have no impact on a company’s returns. The reason for this difference is that Microsoft was a large, successful company over this period, while Enron was a large, unsuccessful company over this period.

When working with “noisy” data, the odds that the results are evenly distributed is very small. If you roll a die six times, the odds of getting each number exactly once is tiny (1.5%). That means there is a 98.5% chance you will roll some number two or more times and some number zero times.

A typical market timing strategy we hear about around this time of year is to “avoid investing in the month of September.” At first thought, it seems odd that September would produce below-average returns, but when you look at the historical data, it is true!

Is there any economic rationale as to why this should continue in the future? I can’t think of any. Some claim that it is due to market participants selling positions to clean up their books after taking time off in the summer. If that were true, why wouldn’t investors try and get ahead of it and sell in August? Or why wouldn’t hedge funds gobble up all the low-priced stocks and keep prices stable? 

Let’s dive deeper into the data and look at the five largest market declines over the last 100 years. Each drop produced several months of negative returns, but all five of them spanned September at some point.

The recession peaked in different months every time, and every month was hit negatively at some point. However, there was bound to be one month affected more than others. It just happened to be September. From 1926 to 2021, 52% of the September months had positive returns. The large negative returns from a few market downturns have skewed the average to be negative. The question is, do we expect this to continue in the future?

Whenever you hear of these market timing strategies, you need to ask yourself if there is a logical economic rationale as to why the trend existed in the past and why it should continue in the future. Is there some risk associated with September we don’t know about? Is there some behavioral rationale that investors can’t arbitrage away? If you can’t come up with a concrete reason, whatever anomaly you are looking at is most likely due to chance and not a reliable trading strategy to implement in the future. Before accepting any investment truism, it is important to be sufficiently skeptical before implementing it yourself.

Returns from Fama/French CRSP Data Library.

As of today, general equity markets are ~10-20% off their peak, tax rates are relatively low, and there are record amounts of cash on the sideline. This combination of variables presents an excellent opportunity for a strategy known as a Roth Conversion. A Roth Conversion is the process by which you take money in a pre-tax account (e.g. traditional IRA) and convert it to an after-tax account (e.g. Roth IRA). The potential benefits of such a change include:

• Tax-free growth inside the Roth IRA
• Tax-free distributions from the Roth IRA
• Avoiding required minimum distributions until you (or possibly you and your spouse) pass away
• Lower estate taxes
• Lower surcharges on Medicare premiums

For more information on Roth conversions, see the paper we created to provide more detail on this strategy, as well as the pros and cons of Roth conversions.

While this all sounds great, and it is, to receive these benefits, you have to pay ordinary income taxes at the time of conversion. This is a strategy worth considering if you are in a relatively low tax bracket because you recently retired and haven’t yet started receiving your Social Security or taking required minimum distributions. Even if you are in a higher tax bracket, it could still make sense because we could implement other tax strategies simultaneously. If you’d like to know the specifics around this strategy or any different ways we help clients maximize their long-term odds of success, we’d be happy to talk with you.

Integrating Your 401(k) into your Financial Plan

To have the best and most accurate picture of your financial situation, you must look at every asset (and liability). Did you know that you can integrate your 401(k), 403(b), 457, HSA, and variable annuity accounts into your overall plan? And get help managing the investments directly?

We have a new state-of-the-art system that allows for safe and compliant HIG advisor access to all of your accounts – taking the hassle, fiduciary responsibility, and management risk off your plate.

What does this mean for me?

• HIG taking fiduciary responsibility – upon setup, HIG takes on immediate responsibility for managing these assets.
• Combatting volatility with timely trading and rebalancing – ensuring your allocation is in line with your plan, no matter what’s happening in the markets.
• Investing in the right funds for you – full review of the cost and quality of available funds immediately upon setup, repeated quarterly.
• Tax efficiency through asset location – maximizing the value of these vehicles as an important part of your portfolio.
• Cost – the cost for this service is determined according to your regular fee schedule. See more details here.

Why it matters

These accounts shouldn’t be an orphaned part of your financial picture. Let us coach you more effectively and get the peace of mind knowing ALL of your assets are taken care of, no matter what.

Ready to set up your access to this service?

Schedule a call with me here. Setup takes no more than 15 minutes.