Since my introduction to Odds On many years ago, I’ve always shared the book as a recommendation for people who want to better understand our industry and the way we think about investing. It feels less like a book and more like a note from a friend, or a story passed along by someone you trust. It’s one of the easiest books I’ve ever read, and it’s stuck with me in a way that not many others have.

When I learned we were doing a newsletter issue all about Odds On, I found myself saying to someone on our team, “You know, it’s funny… I hadn’t really thought about this directly, but the book is actually the reason I’m here at HIG today.”

Before Hill, I worked at Dimensional Fund Advisors, a now $1T+ money manager and the pioneer of evidence-based investing. I met Matt Hall through a new study group we were launching, a group of evidence-based advisors we brought together from around the country who all had an interest and aptitude for media and marketing. Odds On put Matt at the top of our list, and he became one of the founding members of that group.

I had read Odds On in preparation for our first meeting, so I had a sense of Hill and its mission. But it was really through getting to know Matt in that group, hearing how he talked about his purpose, the people he works with, and the way Hill cares for clients, that made both him and the firm stand out.

In my role at DFA, I worked with hundreds of advisory firms across the country. It gave me a unique lens into how firms operate; what they prioritize, how they invest, and how they show up for their clients. Hill always felt different. There was a level of care and intentionality behind each decision, a real desire for clients to feel known and taken care of, and a culture of excellence. The kinds of things every firm likely strives for, but not all are able to truly deliver.

All of that made the decision easy when the opportunity to join Hill came along. I get to do work I love, with people I genuinely enjoy, and care for clients in a way that feels meaningful and aligned with who I am (a caring nerd!).

I don’t think I’d be here today without Odds On. So thank you to Matt for writing it. I doubt finding one of your lead advisors 10 years down the road was top of mind when you sat down to write it, but I’m really glad you did.

Before joining Hill Investment Group, I spent part of my career at Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA)—a firm whose investment philosophy has helped shape our own. DFA, like Hill, was founded on a simple but powerful belief: markets work. That foundational idea continues to shape how I view the world and reinforces my deep confidence in evidence-based investing.

It’s easy to think of “the market” as a complex or distant system. But in reality, we all interact with markets more often than we realize. Whether you’re selling a used couch on Facebook Marketplace, comparing mortgage rates, or negotiating with a contractor, you’re participating in a market—exchanging value based on available information, competing options, and mutual agreement. This same principle drives how trillions of dollars are traded globally every day.

What makes markets remarkable is their ability to reflect the collective wisdom, emotion, and activity of millions of participants. In the short term, markets can be unpredictable, reacting to headlines, global conflicts, elections, or economic data. But over time, they’ve proven to reward long-term thinking, discipline, and optimism.

Of course, that doesn’t mean every moment in the market feels good. Volatility can be unnerving, especially when headlines are loud and uncertainty is high. But as our co-founder Matt Hall recently reminded us, “sometimes you need to duck.” In other words, short-term turbulence is a natural part of investing. It’s the price we pay for the opportunity to pursue long-term growth.

If you take a step back, the broader trend is compelling. As David Booth, co-founder of DFA, noted in a recent commentary, markets delivered strong returns in early 2024, even amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. That’s not magic. That’s markets doing what they do best: translating risk, effort, innovation, and information into forward motion. It’s a reflection of human ingenuity—entrepreneurs solving problems, companies adapting, and people continuing to build and invest in the future.

At Hill, we believe that investing is ultimately an act of faith in global progress. When you invest in a broadly diversified portfolio, you’re investing in the belief that economies will continue to grow, that people will continue to innovate, and that the world will continue to move forward—not just in the U.S., but around the globe.

Yes, markets do go down. Historically, downturns have occurred roughly every six or seven years. But staying invested—despite those temporary declines—has historically been a reliable way to participate in long-term growth. On the other hand, trying to time the market or avoid short-term dips can carry a different risk: missing out on the recoveries that often follow.

There’s also a hidden cost to stepping away from the market: the mental load. The stress of trying to guess when to get in or out, or constantly second-guessing your plan, can be draining. Many investors eventually come to see the value of having a trusted advisor, not just to manage investments, but to help them focus on what matters most in their lives.

If you’re reading this, you’ve likely already embraced that philosophy. You’ve chosen to Take the Long View with us. Our encouragement now is simple: lean into that mindset. Let the markets do their job, while you focus on yours—being present with your family, pursuing your passions, and building a life filled with meaning and intention.

That’s the real return—and the heart of why we Take the Long View.

Disclosures:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Hill Investment Group does not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. References to third-party firms or individuals do not constitute endorsements or affiliations unless explicitly stated.

Markets cranked up the drama in April—with back-to-back days that whipsawed the S&P 500 in both directions. It was a powerful reminder of how misleading short-term moves can be. This piece from Dimensional breaks down the numbers and underscores a lesson we live by: Taking the long view isn’t just smart—it’s essential.

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