If 2025 reinforced anything, it is how quickly markets can test conviction and how costly it can be to react emotionally or narrowly. 

By April 8, the S&P 500 was down 15%, driven largely by Liberation Day and the sudden imposition of global tariffs. Volatility spiked, sentiment deteriorated, and the narrative quickly shifted toward protectionism and questions around US leadership.

Then, just one day later, markets delivered a stark reminder of how unpredictable short-term moves can be.

On April 9, the S&P 500 experienced one of the largest single-day rallies in history, with the S&P 500 rising 9.5% in a single session. Note: That one-day gain is larger than the average annual return of the S&P 500 since it’s existed. Investors who had de-risked or moved to the sidelines in response to the drawdown were not there to participate.

Despite being down double digits just three months into the year, the S&P 500 finished 2025 up nearly 18%, an outcome that few would have predicted during the spring selloff.

But the more important story was not just that markets recovered. It was where the returns came from. Global markets, as measured by the MSCI ACWI index were up 23%.

The Case for Global Diversification

2025 was a powerful reminder that returns rotate, often abruptly, and often away from what has worked most recently.

• US Market (S&P 500): +18%
• International Developed ex US (MSCI World ex US Index): +33%
• International small value (MSCI World ex US Small Value Index): +40%
• Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index): +34%

Investors who reduced international exposure or concentrated further into US equities, often justified by recent outperformance, materially underperformed what markets ultimately delivered.

International small value in particular was one of the strongest performers globally, with the ETF we use, the Avantis International Small Value ETF, returning 50% for 2025!

The Bigger Lesson

Markets do not reward confidence in narratives. They reward discipline. Investing in all types of markets and staying invested in all Markets.

Short term drawdowns are uncomfortable. Large single day rallies are unpredictable. The investors who captured 2025 returns were not those who timed exits or chased recent winners. They were those who stayed invested, stayed diversified, and allowed markets to do what they have historically done over time.

In years like 2025, the value of diversification is not theoretical. It is measurable.

And it is earned by maintaining exposure when doing so feels hardest.