Market volatility is back in the headlines, and if you’re feeling uneasy, you’re not alone. Over the past month, markets have given us another sharp reminder of what it means to be an investor. On April 2nd and 3rd, the S&P 500 fell a combined 10.7%—a drop that understandably triggered anxiety for some. And just when the idea of sitting on the sidelines might have felt tempting, the market turned on a dime. On April 9th, the S&P 500 gained 10.5% in a single day, quickly recapturing much of the prior decline.

That’s the market. It moves. Sometimes violently. In hourly bursts. Often unpredictably. And always in response to new information.

One of the best examples of this came on April 9th at 1:18 p.m. Eastern, when President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would lift tariffs on all countries other than China. Within ten minutes of that post, the S&P 500 had surged nearly 6%. Markets are incredibly efficient at digesting new information, whether it’s about trade policy, inflation, interest rates, or elections. The current price of a security reflects the consensus expectations of millions of participants, each with skin in the game.

So what should you do in the face of this kind of uncertainty?

Stick with your plan.

At Hill Investment Group, every client portfolio is built around a long-term strategy, not short-term noise. Your plan was designed with the understanding that markets will experience sharp moves, both up and down. We don’t pretend to know what tomorrow’s headlines will be or how the market will respond to them. What we do know—based on decades of data and mountains of research—is that markets are priced to deliver a positive expected return every single day. That’s why being in the market is so critical.

Missing just a handful of the best days has an outsized impact on long-term results. And as we just saw, those days often come immediately after the worst ones. Getting out and waiting “until the dust settles” may feel comforting, but it’s rarely profitable.

Global diversification is also part of the plan.
This year offers a good reminder of why. While the S&P 500 is down 9.7% year-to-date as of April 22nd, international developed and emerging markets are actually up 6.3%. No one can consistently predict which areas of the market will outperform in the short term. That’s why we build portfolios that don’t rely on a single country or asset class to deliver returns. Diversification ensures that when one area of the market struggles, others may pick up the slack. It’s not just about reducing risk—it’s about improving the odds of long-term success.

Instead of reacting to volatility, we encourage our clients to focus on what can be controlled—things that actually add value:

• Tax Loss Harvesting – When markets decline, we actively harvest losses to offset gains elsewhere in your portfolio. This reduces your tax bill while keeping you invested.
• Rebalancing – We monitor portfolios to ensure your exposure to risk remains aligned with your plan, buying when assets are down and trimming when they’ve run up.
• Staying the Course – Most importantly, we help you stay focused on the big picture. Financial goals aren’t achieved in a week or a month—they’re met over years and decades by maintaining discipline and a long-term perspective.

Trying to respond to every market move or every tweet is not an investment strategy. It’s gambling. It’s a recipe for regret.

So yes, volatility has returned. And no, we can’t predict what comes next. But we can control how we respond. And our response is grounded in evidence, backed by decades of research, and aligned with your goals.

We’re here to help you take the long view. That’s not just a tagline—it’s a philosophy that has helped our clients build and preserve wealth through all kinds of markets. And it’s one we continue to believe in today.

Stick with it.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Why Predictions Fail: Insights from the Experts

As the new year approaches, financial analysts, equity experts, and market commentators are quick to release their predictions for the year ahead. However, a closer look at their track record reveals a consistent truth: these predictions are almost always wrong. Our analysis of S&P 500 return estimates since 2020 underscores this point—actual annual returns have repeatedly fallen outside the range of the highest, median, and lowest forecasts. Even the most confident experts frequently miss the mark.

The Illusion of Predictability

Equity analysts devote significant time and resources to analyzing economic trends, running complex models, and projecting outcomes. Despite their efforts, their predictions rarely align with reality. Why? Because markets are inherently unpredictable. They are influenced by countless factors—some measurable and others entirely unforeseen. Attempting to predict annual market returns is akin to forecasting next year’s weather: unreliable at best.

Here’s another key insight: while the long-term average return of the S&P 500 is between 8% and 10% annually, the actual return in any given year rarely aligns with this average. Instead, annual returns often deviate significantly, reflecting the market’s inherent volatility.

What Should Investors Focus On?

If accurate market predictions are unattainable, how should investors approach the future? At Hill Investment Group, we take an evidence-based approach. Instead of relying on predictions, we emphasize planning, modeling, and focusing on what we know. Here are our guiding principles:

1. Discipline Pays Off: On average, markets increase by approximately 4 basis points (0.04%)* daily. While this incremental growth may seem small, it compounds significantly over time. The key to capturing these gains is staying invested.
2. Volatility Equals Opportunity: Market unpredictability isn’t a flaw; it’s an essential feature. The volatility we experience is the price of admission for long-term equity rewards. Rather than fearing market swings, we view them as an integral part of the investment journey.
3. Control What You Can: Instead of trying to predict market movements, we focus on what is within our control—creating robust financial plans, building resilient portfolios, and adhering to evidence-based investment strategies.
4. Patience Is Crucial: History has shown that markets recover from turbulence and achieve new highs over time. Staying patient and avoiding knee-jerk reactions to short-term fluctuations is essential for long-term success.

The Takeaway

The data is clear: expert predictions are unreliable. This is why we avoid basing our strategies on forecasts and instead focus on enduring principles that withstand market volatility. Here’s what we know:

• While markets are unpredictable, disciplined investors are consistently rewarded over the long term.
• The average return is positive, even though individual annual returns vary widely.
• Long-term success comes from thoughtful planning, patience, and maintaining perspective.

At Hill Investment Group, we embrace the uncertainty of the market and focus on guiding our clients toward their financial goals. By staying committed to an evidence-based philosophy, we help our clients navigate the inevitable ups and downs while positioning them for long-term success.

The next time you hear an expert confidently predict the market’s direction, remember to take it with a grain of salt. Markets may be unpredictable, but with the right strategy and mindset, they remain one of the most powerful tools for building enduring wealth.

*10% on average per year for equity returns divided by 252 trading days per year on average equates to .04%, or 4 basis points, of growth per trading day. 

This month, we hosted a fantastic webinar to share the details of our upcoming ETF launch, and we couldn’t be more thrilled with the response. The great questions from attendees reflected the thoughtfulness of our clients and their shared commitment to smarter, evidence-based investing.

Excitement is building, not just among our clients but also from other advisory firms across the country eager to offer the same advantages to their own clients. It’s clear that our approach and strategy, combined with the tax-benefits of the 351 conversion, resonate with investors trying to move toward the most efficient evidence-based investment solution tax-free.

This ETF is more than a product; it’s a philosophy in action. And as we approach the holidays, we’re proud to think of it as the gift we’re giving to help you and your portfolios grow stronger for years to come.

Stay tuned—2025 is already shaping up to be a remarkable year.