Every four years, the United States gets consumed by the frenzy of presidential elections. It’s everywhere: TV, social media, and the minds of investors. Whether you’re on Main Street or Wall Street, the speculation about how the market will react to the latest poll or debate is impossible to escape. But there’s a simple truth that often gets lost in the noise—which political party is in office has little effect on the stock market.

For all the headlines and heated debates, historical data tells a clear story: a 60/40 portfolio has delivered average annual returns of around 8%, regardless of which party holds the White House. On top of that, election years are no different from non-election years. Although stock markets can show volatility during election years, and that can be uncomfortable, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Market returns during election years have also historically averaged 8%.

One of the most important lessons for long-term investors is that reacting to short-term political news is rarely a good idea. Trying to time the market based on election outcomes can lead to costly mistakes. Studies consistently show that missing just a few of the market’s best days—many of which often come after periods of volatility—can dramatically reduce your long-term returns.

For example, take this headline from Bloomberg back in 2022 predicting a 100% chance of a US Recession within a year.

For those keeping score the S&P 500 is up 61% as of 9/30/24 since that article came out.

Instead, the better course of action is often to stay invested. The stock market is priced at positive expected returns. In other words, over the long run, stocks are expected to grow in value. The market’s historical average return of 8% reflects this.

If you stay invested through election cycles, avoiding the temptation to sell or make drastic changes based on who wins or loses, you’re more likely to capture those long-term returns.

Whether it’s a blue wave, a red surge, or a contested result, research shows none of it changes the fundamental rules of investing. Stick to your plan, and let time—and the market’s resilience—work in your favor. Presidential elections come and go, but the market’s ability to deliver positive long-term returns remains.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training.  This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Consult with a qualified financial adviser before implementing any investment or financial planning strategy.

Historically, the US Equity market has returned about 10% annually to investors from 1926 – 2022. Due to this historical rate of return, many investors expect this level of return year over year. However, stock markets are highly volatile. Although the average is 10% per year, it is extremely rare for the market to be up 10% over any given year.

Since 1927, there have only been 6 years where the stock market returned between 8-12%. Thus, even though you should expect the market to give you a 10% return, you should expect the market over any given year to hardly ever give you a 10% return. It is this bumpy road that creates the risk in investing in equities, which is why you are compensated with the 10% annual average return. The key is to take the long view and not look at quarter-to-quarter or year-to-year returns.

People often panic when their expectations don’t match reality. Investors expect a 10% return every year, which will often not materialize. When the market goes down and does not match this 10% expectation, investors tend to panic. Changing your expectations on the range of outcomes of equities while keeping in mind the long-term average can help investors stick to their plan.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training.  This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Return will be reduced by advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in managing a client’s account. Consult with a qualified financial adviser before implementing any investment strategy.

Hill Investment Group may discuss and display charts, graphs, and formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used alone to make investment decisions.

At Hill Investment Group, we recognize that when a few clients raise the same question, it’s likely that more have similar thoughts. To better serve you, we’re introducing a new segment in our newsletter where we’ll address common questions and how we approach them. To submit questions for future newsletters, email us at info@hillinvestmentgroup.com

Hey Hill, how can I think differently about the total return of my portfolio vs. focusing on income investing alone?

Throughout our working lives, we relied on our earned income to support our day-to-day expenses. Each year, we worked, earned a salary, and used that money to cover necessities such as food, housing, entertainment, and childcare. A consistent income stream provided us with a sense of security to fulfill our needs and save for retirement. 

However, after retiring, the question arises: where will the income come from to sustain our lifestyle? While some may come from pensions or social security, these sources may not always be sufficient. As a result, investors often dip into their savings portfolio to supplement their income.

When considering how to invest their savings, investors tend to zero in on needing “income” to replace their salaries. They may have a funding gap and want to ensure their portfolio will yield a certain yearly income level through fixed-income or dividend-paying stocks. Although this approach is intuitive and may give retirees peace of mind, it does not maximize the odds of financial success. Why not?

Investment returns come from two places. Income (dividends and interest) and capital appreciation (prices going up). By focusing solely on income, you forgo the primary driver of returns: capital appreciation. 

When you go to the store and buy new clothes, you don’t care if you pay with cash from your left pocket or your right pocket. Money is money, and the source is irrelevant. The same is true of investment returns. It does not matter whether those returns come from dividends or prices going up. What matters is the total amount of money you have. By focusing on income returns or just the money in your left pocket, you are not investing in the stocks or bonds with the highest expected total return. You are not maximizing the money you have across both your pockets. At the end of the year, this will leave you with less total savings.

Capital appreciation generally drives total returns much more than income. Additionally, capital appreciation receives favorable tax treatment. Gains from price increases are taxed at a lower rate than income. Thus, an investor would prefer their return come from capital appreciation vs. income because, after taxes, they will have more money to spend. 

Therefore, rather than thinking about how much income my portfolio generates year by year, we encourage our clients to consider the total value of their investments and what that total level can sustain in terms of spending over a lifetime, understanding the ebbs and flows of the market. This approach maximizes our clients’ odds of achieving their financial goals.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk and, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Return will be reduced by advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in the management of a client’s account. Consult with a qualified financial adviser before implementing any investment strategy.