My 18-month-old son’s favorite song right now has a catchy chorus that goes, “Bubble, bubble, bubble… POP!” and as with any toddler favorite, we sing it constantly, so it’s always stuck in my head. Lately, every time I open my WSJ app and see the word “bubble” splashed across a headline, the soundtrack kicks in automatically.

In the song, the bubbles always pop. So, should we be preparing for a big pop in markets, as the headlines suggest? Part of taking the long view is refusing to react to headlines. Our philosophy centers on tuning out the noise and anchoring decisions in evidence. But with all the AI “bubble” chatter, it’s worth taking a moment to examine this idea from a research-backed point of view, one that might surprise you, but ultimately help you rise above the noise.

What If Bubbles Don’t Exist?

Eugene Fama, Nobel laureate and architect of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (and a major influence on Hill’s investment philosophy), has a view that stops people in their tracks: He doesn’t believe in bubbles.

Not because he thinks markets are perfect…they aren’t. And not because prices never fall…we know that they do. He challenges the idea of bubbles because, as he puts it, you can’t scientifically prove that a price was ‘wrong’ in the moment.

Here’s what this means:

1. We only call something a bubble in hindsight.

When prices rise sharply, no one knows if it’s irrational because future growth could justify it. We only label it a “bubble” after a drop, which means we’re using new information to judge old prices.

2. A crash isn’t evidence of a bubble.

A sharp decline doesn’t mean earlier prices were foolish. It may simply reflect changing expectations, new information, or shifting economic conditions.

3. If something looks obviously overpriced, markets should correct it.

Nobel Prize winner, University of Chicago Professor, and Dimensional Director Eugene Fama argues that calling something a bubble implies that most investors were collectively irrational, something he’s deeply skeptical of.

Whether or not you fully agree with him, his perspective matters because it reminds us of something essential: the story of markets is driven more by narrative and emotion than data.

How this Connects to Your Plan

At Hill, we don’t spend time predicting bubbles. We don’t try to guess where the top is. We don’t build your plan around today’s headlines. Instead, we build portfolios (and relationships) around a different set of ideas:

• Evidence beats emotion.
• Your financial life shouldn’t be swayed by headlines.
• And you don’t need to predict what comes next.

So, Are We in a Bubble? The honest, evidence-based, answer is that no one knows. And we don’t need to. The goal isn’t to call the top. It’s to stay invested, stay disciplined, and stay focused on your long-term vision, the one we’re building together.

If you’d like to talk more about this, call us or email at askanadvisor@hillinvestmentgroup.com to set up a time. 

Every once in a while, an event reminds me just how much our work together matters. Our evening with Carl Richards was one of those moments…a room full of people opening up, reflecting, and reconnecting with what’s truly important.

A number of you joined us at the Racquet Club in St. Louis for a conversation that was part money, part meaning, and entirely human. Thank you for being there. And for those who couldn’t join in person, we felt your support from afar.

The energy in the room was palpable. People leaned in, shared openly, and allowed themselves to be moved. Since then, we’ve received thoughtful notes inspired by Carl’s sketches. It’s a reminder that a simple line, drawn with intention, can shift how we see our decisions and ourselves.

In my introduction that evening, I shared a story about meeting a couple on vacation whose wife was “famous to some.” That phrase describes Carl perfectly. He isn’t trying to be famous. He’s trying to be useful. Based on your reactions, he was.

The questions I asked Carl reflect the way we think at Hill Investment Group:

• What’s the story behind the sketches that make the complex simple without being simplistic?
• What feelings sit just below our financial decisions?
• How do we align the values we claim with the choices we make?

Carl reminded us that money is rarely the real topic. It’s a doorway into purpose and clarity.

My biggest takeaway from the evening is this:

At Hill Investment Group, our job is twofold. We help clients make the most of their capital, picking up every penny possible through evidence and disciplined implementation. And we help clients make the most of what matters in their lives through goal setting, accountability, and behavioral coaching.

We’ve been doing this work for 20 years, and we plan to keep doing it for 20 more, for a select group of long-view thinkers.

For those outside St. Louis, we want you to feel part of the experience too.

If you’d like a complimentary copy of Carl’s newest book, just email us and we’ll send one your way.

Here’s to a year ahead defined by gratitude, clearer choices, and deeper alignment between money and what matters most.

Take the Long View,

After I earned my Certified Financial Planning (CFP(R)) designation, my grandparents were both proud and curious. They asked me to take a look at their finances and see if there was anything they should be doing differently. My grandpa had always managed things on his own and had done well, but one glaring gap stood out: they hadn’t done any estate planning.

They didn’t know what a trust was or where to start. But they did know what mattered most: how they wanted their assets to pass, which of their children they trusted to handle things, and that they wanted to make the process as easy and stress-free as possible for their family one day.

For someone used to doing everything himself, my grandpa recognized that this was one aspect of his life that he needed to delegate. He also saw the value in doing some work now to make life easier for his kids later, a small act of love that will one day make a big difference.

That mindset captures how we typically approach estate planning with our clients at Hill. It can feel complicated and overwhelming, but when you focus on the big picture and surround yourself with the right team, it becomes a powerful way to protect your family and preserve your legacy.

No two estate plans look the same. Some are wonderfully simple, others more complex. There’s no “right” way to do it—only what’s right for you. That’s why we take time to understand each client’s values, family dynamics, and long-term vision before collaborating with their attorneys and CPAs to design a plan that fits.

Here are a few guiding questions we use when helping clients update or establish their plan:

• Is it easy to understand? You should be able to explain the big picture in plain English.
• Does your team collaborate on your behalf? Your attorney, CPA, and Hill advisor should be aligned so your investments, taxes, and estate all work together.
• Are you avoiding probate? The right structure may help your family avoid a lengthy and expensive court process.
• Are your heirs protected? Your plan should clearly state how and by whom assets will be managed.
• Is everything included? It’s easy for accounts or property to be left out due to incorrect titling.
• Who will carry out your plan? Executors, trustees, powers of attorney, and guardians can all play important roles. It’s important to make sure they understand and accept them.

When my grandparents’ plan was complete, my mom (named as executor) told me multiple times how relieved she felt knowing everything was organized and clear. That sense of clarity is exactly what we hope to provide for every Hill family.

Estate planning isn’t one-and-done; it’s an ongoing act of care, and it’s part of Taking the Long View®. We generally recommend our clients to review their plan every five years, or sooner if life or laws change. Families grow, goals evolve, and your plan should, too.

If you’re wondering whether your plan still fits, or if you’ve been meaning to get started, we’d love to help you or a loved one take that next step.

Email us at askanadvisor@hillinvestmentgroup.com to connect with your Hill advisor and start the conversation.