Why Predictions Fail: Insights from the Experts

As the new year approaches, financial analysts, equity experts, and market commentators are quick to release their predictions for the year ahead. However, a closer look at their track record reveals a consistent truth: these predictions are almost always wrong. Our analysis of S&P 500 return estimates since 2020 underscores this point—actual annual returns have repeatedly fallen outside the range of the highest, median, and lowest forecasts. Even the most confident experts frequently miss the mark.

The Illusion of Predictability

Equity analysts devote significant time and resources to analyzing economic trends, running complex models, and projecting outcomes. Despite their efforts, their predictions rarely align with reality. Why? Because markets are inherently unpredictable. They are influenced by countless factors—some measurable and others entirely unforeseen. Attempting to predict annual market returns is akin to forecasting next year’s weather: unreliable at best.

Here’s another key insight: while the long-term average return of the S&P 500 is between 8% and 10% annually, the actual return in any given year rarely aligns with this average. Instead, annual returns often deviate significantly, reflecting the market’s inherent volatility.

What Should Investors Focus On?

If accurate market predictions are unattainable, how should investors approach the future? At Hill Investment Group, we take an evidence-based approach. Instead of relying on predictions, we emphasize planning, modeling, and focusing on what we know. Here are our guiding principles:

1. Discipline Pays Off: On average, markets increase by approximately 4 basis points (0.04%)* daily. While this incremental growth may seem small, it compounds significantly over time. The key to capturing these gains is staying invested.
2. Volatility Equals Opportunity: Market unpredictability isn’t a flaw; it’s an essential feature. The volatility we experience is the price of admission for long-term equity rewards. Rather than fearing market swings, we view them as an integral part of the investment journey.
3. Control What You Can: Instead of trying to predict market movements, we focus on what is within our control—creating robust financial plans, building resilient portfolios, and adhering to evidence-based investment strategies.
4. Patience Is Crucial: History has shown that markets recover from turbulence and achieve new highs over time. Staying patient and avoiding knee-jerk reactions to short-term fluctuations is essential for long-term success.

The Takeaway

The data is clear: expert predictions are unreliable. This is why we avoid basing our strategies on forecasts and instead focus on enduring principles that withstand market volatility. Here’s what we know:

• While markets are unpredictable, disciplined investors are consistently rewarded over the long term.
• The average return is positive, even though individual annual returns vary widely.
• Long-term success comes from thoughtful planning, patience, and maintaining perspective.

At Hill Investment Group, we embrace the uncertainty of the market and focus on guiding our clients toward their financial goals. By staying committed to an evidence-based philosophy, we help our clients navigate the inevitable ups and downs while positioning them for long-term success.

The next time you hear an expert confidently predict the market’s direction, remember to take it with a grain of salt. Markets may be unpredictable, but with the right strategy and mindset, they remain one of the most powerful tools for building enduring wealth.

*10% on average per year for equity returns divided by 252 trading days per year on average equates to .04%, or 4 basis points, of growth per trading day. 

How 3 Simple Questions Help Us Serve You Better

At Hill Investment Group, it’s about more than just managing money—it’s about adding value to your life. That’s why we recently started asking three important questions at every client review meeting:

1. What’s the most valuable thing we do for you?
2. Is there anything we could be doing that we’re not?
3. If someone needed our help, would you be comfortable introducing us?

These questions keep us focused on what matters most: your peace of mind, trust, and the lasting impact we can make together. We’ve been inspired by your answers, which often go beyond financial goals, showing us that trust, security, and partnership are what really count.

We had our own thoughts about the typical responses to the first question. Perhaps they would reflect the core elements of our service—evidence-based investment management, financial planning, or our Longview Analysis. While those certainly do come up, we’ve been deeply moved by how our clients describe the value we bring in their own words. From “I love not having to make decisions in this part of my life” to “I just don’t worry about money anymore,” the feedback has gone beyond the tangible aspects of our work. It’s given us a fresh perspective on what matters most to our clients.

The second question, “Is there anything we could be doing that we’re not?” has opened doors to opportunities for improvement. This question pushes us to listen more closely and serve more effectively. The responses have challenged us to think about the evolving needs of our clients and how we can better support them in ways we hadn’t considered.

Lastly, asking whether clients feel comfortable introducing us to others has been incredibly valuable. It’s a reminder that the trust we build doesn’t end with the clients we serve—it extends to their networks, too. When someone says, “Yes, I’d happily introduce you,” it’s a testament to the strength of our relationship and the impact we’ve had. It’s a reflection of the confidence our clients feel in us, and that’s something we deeply appreciate and never take for granted.

These three questions have become an essential part of our process, helping us stay connected to what’s most important: understanding our clients’ needs, adapting our services, and earning the trust that leads to long-term partnerships.

As we continue to ask you these questions in the months ahead, we’re excited to see where the answers take us now and in the long view.