Every four years, the United States gets consumed by the frenzy of presidential elections. It’s everywhere: TV, social media, and the minds of investors. Whether you’re on Main Street or Wall Street, the speculation about how the market will react to the latest poll or debate is impossible to escape. But there’s a simple truth that often gets lost in the noise—which political party is in office has little effect on the stock market.

For all the headlines and heated debates, historical data tells a clear story: a 60/40 portfolio has delivered average annual returns of around 8%, regardless of which party holds the White House. On top of that, election years are no different from non-election years. Although stock markets can show volatility during election years, and that can be uncomfortable, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Market returns during election years have also historically averaged 8%.

One of the most important lessons for long-term investors is that reacting to short-term political news is rarely a good idea. Trying to time the market based on election outcomes can lead to costly mistakes. Studies consistently show that missing just a few of the market’s best days—many of which often come after periods of volatility—can dramatically reduce your long-term returns.

For example, take this headline from Bloomberg back in 2022 predicting a 100% chance of a US Recession within a year.

For those keeping score the S&P 500 is up 61% as of 9/30/24 since that article came out.

Instead, the better course of action is often to stay invested. The stock market is priced at positive expected returns. In other words, over the long run, stocks are expected to grow in value. The market’s historical average return of 8% reflects this.

If you stay invested through election cycles, avoiding the temptation to sell or make drastic changes based on who wins or loses, you’re more likely to capture those long-term returns.

Whether it’s a blue wave, a red surge, or a contested result, research shows none of it changes the fundamental rules of investing. Stick to your plan, and let time—and the market’s resilience—work in your favor. Presidential elections come and go, but the market’s ability to deliver positive long-term returns remains.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training.  This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Consult with a qualified financial adviser before implementing any investment or financial planning strategy.

I’m excited to share some recent news: Besides the television ads we’ve mentioned, I’ve had the privilege of being featured in a recent New York Times advertising campaign by Charles Schwab, celebrating the work of independent financial advisors. The campaign highlights the unique value we bring to our clients by considering their entire lives when managing their financial futures.

When people see the ad, they often ask, “How did you get selected for this?” It’s a good question, and the answer is simple: Schwab invited me to participate. We’re not paid to be in this ad, and we don’t pay anything to be featured. We chose to be involved because we believe wholeheartedly in the power of independent advice.

My quote in the ad says, “Your dreams deserve more personal attention,” and that’s not just a tagline—it’s core to the philosophy that drives us at Hill Investment Group. Unlike the traditional brokerage firms or wirehouses that are often more focused on sales targets, independent advisors are free to prioritize what truly matters: you and your goals. We’re not just managing portfolios; we’re connecting your investments to your big picture, your dreams, and your life.

We’re honored to be part of this campaign because it gives us an opportunity to share the story of independent advice with a broader audience. It’s a story about how personalized, unbiased guidance can make a real difference in people’s lives and how being independent allows us to align our interests with those of our clients.

Being featured in the campaign is not just about recognition; it’s about raising awareness of the benefits of working with independent advisors. It’s about championing a model that puts clients first, free from the conflicts of interest that can come with sales-driven environments. At Hill Investment Group, we’re proud to be part of this community and to show what’s possible when your dreams truly receive the personal attention they deserve.

If you have any questions about what it means to be an independent advisor or how we connect your portfolio to your life, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’re here to help you dream bigger, plan smarter, and live fully.

Congratulations to our own Matt Hall,  who is featured in Schwab’s new national ad campaign!

As mentioned in a post back in July, Matt was selected to participate in a series of ads highlighting the advantages independent advisors bring to our clients. Here is the first in a series airing over the next few weeks and months.

In the 30-second spot, Matt and the other advisors zero in on a few of the crucial promises independent advisors make when we work with our clients. Schwab is essential in our ecosystem for safeguarding our clients’ securities and is the leading custodian working with independent advisory firms.

The independent model is superior to the other options available to investors because of its fiduciary standard for clients. We work for you, and only you, and avoid the conflicts that exist with big banks and brokerage firms.

Thanks, Matt, for representing Hill and the broader advisor community genuinely looking to serve others now and in the longer view!