There’s a well-known idea in the world of big-picture thinking, first introduced by historian Charles Mann, that people tend to fall into one of two camps when it comes to solving problems: wizards and prophets.

The wizard believes in the power of innovation. They chase breakthroughs, trusting that human ingenuity can overcome nearly any obstacle. In their view, the solution is out there. We just haven’t invented it yet.

The prophet, on the other hand, champions restraint. Prophets remind us of our limits, calling for thoughtful stewardship and humility. They believe real progress comes not from racing ahead, but from pausing to reflect, simplify, and align with deeper values.

This tension between wizard and prophet shows up in everything from climate change to technology, and even how we think about investing.

The Wizard

In investing, wizard energy often shows up as the lure of the new:

• A product promising market-beating potential
• A hot stock expected to soar
• An app that promises to automate everything overnight
  

The wizard pursues complexity and fast results. And in moderation, this mindset has its place. Without it, we wouldn’t have low-cost index funds, digital account access, or the academic breakthroughs that helped shape evidence-based investing.

But unchecked, wizardry can lead to chasing fads, mistaking novelty for progress, and believing the next big thing is always just a click away.

The Prophet

Prophets bring a different mindset to investing. They emphasize what’s within our control: saving consistently, diversifying broadly, and sticking to a long-term plan. They ask deeper questions like: How can I align my money with my values? And what will make this last?

This approach can feel quieter, but over time, it offers clarity, resilience, and connection to what matters most.

Better Together

At Hill, we aim to balance both perspectives. Like the wizard, we embrace smart innovation, leveraging tools and research when they align with long-term evidence. And like the prophet, we build portfolios and plans around timeless principles: patience, discipline, and long-view thinking.

Financial progress isn’t about choosing sides. It’s about responsible stewardship and intentional alignment so that your money supports a life of meaning and purpose.

Welcome to the age of the “finfluencer.” While some have genuine experience, many are focused on views, and not your best interest. At Hill Investment Group, we believe that real advice should be simple, clear, and grounded in evidence, not hype. That’s why we’re launching a new series to unpack misleading ideas that circulate online or in print.

Our goal? To inform, not entertain. To offer substance, not speculation.

Heard something at work, at golf, or on social media that has you asking, “Should I be paying attention to this?” Feel free to share it with us. We’d love to help unpack it. Submissions will remain confidential unless we get your permission to share anonymously. Send to: zenz@hillinvestmentgroup.com

Please note: Submissions are reviewed for educational purposes only and do not constitute personalized investment advice.

If you follow finance influencers online, you’ve probably seen a version of this pitch: “All you need are these ETFs.” More often than not, that list includes VOO and QQQ, and little else.

It’s a compelling idea. Over the past decade, these two funds have benefited from strong performance by large U.S. companies, particularly the tech sector. But a closer look at what’s under the hood reveals a more concentrated and potentially less diversified portfolio than many investors realize.

What These Funds Represent

VOO is an index fund tracking the S&P 500, which includes large U.S. companies. QQQ tracks the NASDAQ-100 Index, which also focuses on U.S. large-cap companies, particularly technology-oriented names. While they are separate funds, they share many holdings.

In fact:

• Roughly 85% of QQQ’s holdings also appear in VOO.
• The overlap in weight between the two strategies is around 50%.

That means holding both may result in doubling up on the same exposures, mainly large U.S. tech and growth-oriented companies.

Additionally, QQQ’s higher expense ratio reflects the licensing cost of tracking a proprietary index, as well as required marketing efforts. While high fees alone don’t negate a fund’s  merits, investors should always ask themselves if they can get similar investment exposures without the additional costs dragging down performance. 

What’s Not Included

Holding only VOO and QQQ may leave meaningful portions of the global capital markets untapped. These include:

• Small- and mid-cap U.S. companies
• International developed markets
• Emerging markets

Together, VOO and QQQ cover a significant portion of the U.S. market but only represent about half of the global investable opportunity set. Omitting the other half may reduce diversification and limit exposure to other potential sources of return.

For instance, in some years, areas outside the U.S., such as international stocks, have delivered notably stronger returns than their domestic counterparts. That rotation is unpredictable and has lasted over a decade when looking at historical returns.

A Broader Perspective on Diversification

Low-cost index funds can be valuable building blocks, but true diversification often means looking beyond the most visible names. A globally diversified portfolio typically includes exposure to companies of varying sizes, styles, and geographies. This broader approach is designed to manage risk and capture returns from multiple parts of the market, not just the ones making headlines.

The Takeaway

There’s nothing inherently wrong with VOO or QQQ. They offer relatively efficient access to major segments of the market. But using them as your only strategy may leave diversification and opportunity on the table. We know you can do better. An evidence-based investment approach typically considers a wider range of asset classes, grounded in long-term academic research rather than short-term trends.

Over the last several months, “tariffs” have made frequent headlines. They’re on. They’re off. They’re up. They’re down. Understandably, many investors are asking: How will this affect my portfolio?

Here’s the short answer: the market doesn’t wait for official announcements—good or bad. Every second global financial markets are open, prices are adjusting in real time to reflect all known information, whether that information is accurate, speculative, or incomplete.

This is why reacting to headlines or trying to time the market based on “breaking news” often proves unproductive. The news is already priced in.

At Hill, we help clients build portfolios rooted in long-term planning, academic research, and thoughtful consideration of risk. These portfolios are designed with the understanding that market fluctuations and unexpected headlines are part of the journey.

Rather than react to each new cycle of uncertainty, we focus on your plan, your risk tolerance, and the full breadth of evidence available. This approach is intended to help clients remain invested and confident, even in the face of short-term volatility.

The included graphic from Dimensional illustrates how markets respond to news events. It highlights a consistent truth: while headlines can move markets temporarily, disciplined, diversified investors who stay the course are often better positioned over the long term.

If you have questions about how your portfolio is structured to weather market headlines—or want to revisit your plan—we’d be happy to talk.