Summer has a way of reminding us what all of this is really for.

A few quiet days on a river. Pool time. A long dinner with friends. Time away without constantly checking markets, headlines, or account balances.

(The photo above is my dad and daughter, Harper, fly fishing together in Mid-Missouri.)

Lisa and I recently celebrated our only child’s high school graduation. Like many parents, it was one of those moments that made you pause. You realize how quickly chapters of life move and how important it is to actually be present for them.

In our experience, one of the most overlooked benefits of good planning and disciplined, evidence-based investing is the ability to zoom out and fully engage with life beyond money.

Not because uncertainty disappears. Markets will always move. Tax laws will change. Life will remain complicated.

But when there’s a real plan in place, when someone is helping coordinate the moving pieces, when important things are being tended to before they become problems, and when your investment approach isn’t dependent on predictions or headlines, something valuable happens:

You gain the freedom to stop carrying your financial life around in your head all the time.

That doesn’t happen accidentally.

Behind the scenes, our team spends an enormous amount of time thinking about taxes, estate planning, cash flow, investment implementation, behavioral coaching, and the hundreds of small decisions that quietly compound over time. Michael Kitces and others have written extensively about this often unseen value of financial advice, particularly the role advisors play not just in improving outcomes, but in helping ensure important things actually get done.

In many ways, the real value of planning is not simply financial optimization. It is creating the conditions that allow people to be more present for the moments that matter most.

We hope this summer gives you some of those moments.

Welcome to our next article in our “Signal vs. Noise” series, which examines popular claims circulating online or in print. Our goal is to help you separate the signal from the noise. At Hill Investment Group, we believe good advice should be simple, clear, and grounded in evidence — not hype.

“The biggest risk is not having exposure to this transformational technology.” — JPMorgan Wealth Management, January 2026

The story feels so obvious: transformative technology, dominant companies, get in now. But a compelling technology story and a compelling investment are two totally different things. Thus far in 2026, three of the largest AI companies on the planet reported some of their best quarters ever – and watched their stock prices drop. Here’s why that’s not as surprising as it sounds.

A stock’s price is the market’s collective best guess at everything a company will ever earn, discounted to today. It’s like how you can’t get a bargain on a house in a neighborhood that everyone knows is great – that desirability is in the asking price. In general, AI companies’ stocks trade at steep premiums compared to the broader market. That’s not necessarily right or wrong; it’s the market saying, “We expect extraordinary things.”

Exhibits A, B, and C

NVIDIA Corp – the designer of the AI chips that power the data centers behind virtually every major AI application in use today

• February 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for revenue, profits, and future earnings guidance – the stock fell 5.5%

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – the company that physically manufactures chips for NVIDIA, Apple, and virtually every major AI company

• April 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for profits for the fourth consecutive quarter – the stock fell 3%

ASML Holdings – the Dutch company that makes specialized machines used to produce TSMC’s chips; without ASML, there is no modern semiconductor industry

• April 2026 – beat revenue and profits estimates, while increasing their full-year guidance for 2026 – the stock fell 6%

These three companies are worth ~$5.5 trillion combined and are critical parts of the global AI backbone. They delivered, but the market said, “We already knew.”

These examples aren’t a reason to avoid AI investments entirely. Instead, they serve as a timely reminder that stock prices already reflect the market’s expectations, and that expecting a great company to keep being great isn’t the same as expecting a great return.

The more useful question for your financial future isn’t “will AI change the world?” It probably will. The better question is: “Is my portfolio built to succeed regardless of whether these companies meet the market’s sky-high expectations for them?”

Your portfolio already owns AI. At Hill, we invest in global capitalism, which means that you already own NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, and every other company driving or benefiting from this technology as part of a diversified portfolio. Put simply, you get to participate in the upside if AI exceeds expectations, but you’re also not overexposed if these companies fall short.

Decades of financial research show that the most reliable path to investment success is owning the whole market, staying diversified, and tilting toward companies that are attractively priced with strong profits. Instead of taking a bet on (or against) AI, you have a strategy built to succeed whether or not AI stocks live up to the hype.

Our job is simple but critically important: put the odds of investment success in your favor by sticking to the evidence, not the headlines.

Disclosure

Don’t Hire Us Because You Like Us

There’s something worth saying out loud.

You shouldn’t work with us just because you like us.

When we meet someone new, I often ask how they chose the person they’re currently working with.

The answers are usually some version of:
“He’s a neighbor.”
“She’s a friend of the family.”
“We met through our kids’ sports.”

All perfectly understandable.

But those aren’t the answers I’m hoping to hear.

It would be refreshing to hear someone say:
“Our values really align.”
“I believe in their investment approach.”
“They’ve given us planning advice that has actually changed our financial lives.”

Because when something as important as your financial life is involved, that’s what should matter.

Likability is certainly a factor. We enjoy it as much as anyone. It makes relationships easier. It makes conversations more natural. And it tends to persist for years.

But it’s not a sufficient reason to choose someone to manage your life savings.

That’s where we’re different.

You should work with us because we believe in something.

Because our approach is grounded in decades of academic research, not opinion or prediction.

Because we’ve built real strategies, like the work behind EBI and LVIG, that are designed with intention, not assembled to match a trend.

Because we care deeply about financial planning. Not just portfolios, but the decisions that actually shape your life.

And because we are fiduciaries. We work for our clients. Not a brokerage firm. Not a bank. Just you.

In short, if you believe what we believe, that’s the foundation for a long and healthy relationship.

If you like us too, that’s even better. It makes the relationship more enjoyable. It makes conversations easier. It probably makes the whole experience better.

But it’s a bonus. The icing on the cake.

Because over time, we’ve found that the best outcomes don’t come from chasing what feels right in the moment. They come from committing to a sound approach and sticking with it. Taking the long view.

Performance, in that sense, isn’t the goal. It’s the result.

The best outcomes we’ve seen come from staying put when it was hardest to do so.

That doesn’t always win the popularity contest.

But in the long run, what matters isn’t who you like the most.
It’s who you can rely on when it counts.

So you can invest your money and your time in the people you actually like.

Take the long view,