There’s a well-known idea in the world of big-picture thinking, first introduced by historian Charles Mann, that people tend to fall into one of two camps when it comes to solving problems: wizards and prophets.

The wizard believes in the power of innovation. They chase breakthroughs, trusting that human ingenuity can overcome nearly any obstacle. In their view, the solution is out there. We just haven’t invented it yet.

The prophet, on the other hand, champions restraint. Prophets remind us of our limits, calling for thoughtful stewardship and humility. They believe real progress comes not from racing ahead, but from pausing to reflect, simplify, and align with deeper values.

This tension between wizard and prophet shows up in everything from climate change to technology, and even how we think about investing.

The Wizard

In investing, wizard energy often shows up as the lure of the new:

• A product promising market-beating potential
• A hot stock expected to soar
• An app that promises to automate everything overnight
  

The wizard pursues complexity and fast results. And in moderation, this mindset has its place. Without it, we wouldn’t have low-cost index funds, digital account access, or the academic breakthroughs that helped shape evidence-based investing.

But unchecked, wizardry can lead to chasing fads, mistaking novelty for progress, and believing the next big thing is always just a click away.

The Prophet

Prophets bring a different mindset to investing. They emphasize what’s within our control: saving consistently, diversifying broadly, and sticking to a long-term plan. They ask deeper questions like: How can I align my money with my values? And what will make this last?

This approach can feel quieter, but over time, it offers clarity, resilience, and connection to what matters most.

Better Together

At Hill, we aim to balance both perspectives. Like the wizard, we embrace smart innovation, leveraging tools and research when they align with long-term evidence. And like the prophet, we build portfolios and plans around timeless principles: patience, discipline, and long-view thinking.

Financial progress isn’t about choosing sides. It’s about responsible stewardship and intentional alignment so that your money supports a life of meaning and purpose.

Over the last several months, “tariffs” have made frequent headlines. They’re on. They’re off. They’re up. They’re down. Understandably, many investors are asking: How will this affect my portfolio?

Here’s the short answer: the market doesn’t wait for official announcements—good or bad. Every second global financial markets are open, prices are adjusting in real time to reflect all known information, whether that information is accurate, speculative, or incomplete.

This is why reacting to headlines or trying to time the market based on “breaking news” often proves unproductive. The news is already priced in.

At Hill, we help clients build portfolios rooted in long-term planning, academic research, and thoughtful consideration of risk. These portfolios are designed with the understanding that market fluctuations and unexpected headlines are part of the journey.

Rather than react to each new cycle of uncertainty, we focus on your plan, your risk tolerance, and the full breadth of evidence available. This approach is intended to help clients remain invested and confident, even in the face of short-term volatility.

The included graphic from Dimensional illustrates how markets respond to news events. It highlights a consistent truth: while headlines can move markets temporarily, disciplined, diversified investors who stay the course are often better positioned over the long term.

If you have questions about how your portfolio is structured to weather market headlines—or want to revisit your plan—we’d be happy to talk.

What 20 Years Have Taught Us

Twenty years ago, we launched Hill Investment Group with a simple idea and a bit of idealism. We called our firm the Island of Idealism: a place where evidence mattered more than ego, long-term thinking trumped short-term noise, and clients could breathe a little easier knowing they had a guide they could trust.

That idealism is still with us. But over two decades, it’s been sharpened by experience. We’ve helped clients weather storms, tune out the headlines, and stay committed to plans built for decades, not days.

In the spirit of reflection, I reached out to my co-founder, Rick Hill, to help compile this list. Rick is now retired, but his thinking (and our friendship) continues to shape our work and HIG culture.

Here are 20 lessons we’ve learned in 20 years. Some are personal. Some are practical. All of them are built to last.

20 Lessons in 20 Years

1. Evidence beats emotion.
2. You don’t need to predict the future to build wealth. You need a process.
3. Costs, taxes, and behavior matter more than market forecasts.
4. Markets reward discipline, not cleverness.
5. Diversification is the only free lunch. Eat it every day.
6. A sound allocation only works if you stick with it. Education builds confidence, and confidence fuels discipline.

7. Our most successful clients are curious and engaged. They’re fun to work with, understand the philosophy, and like to delegate.
8. Listening is more powerful than convincing.
9. Trust is earned through credibility, reliability, and intimacy, not promised through performance.
10. Simplicity makes people feel smart. Complexity makes them feel confused. We care deeply about simplicity.
11. People want progress, not perfection.

12. Culture matters and should be tended like a garden.
13. High standards are contagious. So is apathy.
14. You don’t need to be big to be mighty.
15. The right people are worth the wait.
16. Saying no creates space for what matters.

17. Don’t check your portfolio when the world feels upside down. Check your plan.
18. The Stockdale Paradox applies to investing: Confront the facts, believe in the outcome. Untether from the short term.
19. Market volatility is normal. History proves it. You get paid for tolerating the bumpy ride.
20. Take the long view. It’s the only one that works.

Whether you’ve been with us since the early days or just recently joined the journey, thank you for trusting us. We’re proud of what we’ve built, and we’re even more excited about what’s ahead.

Still client-focused. Still evolving. Still taking the long view.

For your further exploration

• Hear the origin story: Matt & Rick on the “Island of Idealism”
• Read about it in Odds On: The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor
• ️Explore the Stockdale Paradox in this podcast episode