Welcome to our next article in our “Signal vs. Noise” series, which examines popular claims circulating online or in print. Our goal is to help you separate the signal from the noise. At Hill Investment Group, we believe good advice should be simple, clear, and grounded in evidence — not hype.

“The biggest risk is not having exposure to this transformational technology.” — JPMorgan Wealth Management, January 2026

The story feels so obvious: transformative technology, dominant companies, get in now. But a compelling technology story and a compelling investment are two totally different things. Thus far in 2026, three of the largest AI companies on the planet reported some of their best quarters ever – and watched their stock prices drop. Here’s why that’s not as surprising as it sounds.

A stock’s price is the market’s collective best guess at everything a company will ever earn, discounted to today. It’s like how you can’t get a bargain on a house in a neighborhood that everyone knows is great – that desirability is in the asking price. In general, AI companies’ stocks trade at steep premiums compared to the broader market. That’s not necessarily right or wrong; it’s the market saying, “We expect extraordinary things.”

Exhibits A, B, and C

NVIDIA Corp – the designer of the AI chips that power the data centers behind virtually every major AI application in use today

• February 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for revenue, profits, and future earnings guidance – the stock fell 5.5%

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – the company that physically manufactures chips for NVIDIA, Apple, and virtually every major AI company

• April 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for profits for the fourth consecutive quarter – the stock fell 3%

ASML Holdings – the Dutch company that makes specialized machines used to produce TSMC’s chips; without ASML, there is no modern semiconductor industry

• April 2026 – beat revenue and profits estimates, while increasing their full-year guidance for 2026 – the stock fell 6%

These three companies are worth ~$5.5 trillion combined and are critical parts of the global AI backbone. They delivered, but the market said, “We already knew.”

These examples aren’t a reason to avoid AI investments entirely. Instead, they serve as a timely reminder that stock prices already reflect the market’s expectations, and that expecting a great company to keep being great isn’t the same as expecting a great return.

The more useful question for your financial future isn’t “will AI change the world?” It probably will. The better question is: “Is my portfolio built to succeed regardless of whether these companies meet the market’s sky-high expectations for them?”

Your portfolio already owns AI. At Hill, we invest in global capitalism, which means that you already own NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, and every other company driving or benefiting from this technology as part of a diversified portfolio. Put simply, you get to participate in the upside if AI exceeds expectations, but you’re also not overexposed if these companies fall short.

Decades of financial research show that the most reliable path to investment success is owning the whole market, staying diversified, and tilting toward companies that are attractively priced with strong profits. Instead of taking a bet on (or against) AI, you have a strategy built to succeed whether or not AI stocks live up to the hype.

Our job is simple but critically important: put the odds of investment success in your favor by sticking to the evidence, not the headlines.

Disclosure

When Opening Day arrives, it brings optimism, but there is also a familiar temptation: to focus on what’s happening now instead of what actually matters over time.

I find myself returning to the ideas of Michael Lewis, not just his iconic baseball book Moneyball, but also his recent appearance on the Acquired podcast. The common thread isn’t baseball. It’s perspective.

Moneyball wasn’t really about baseball statistics—it was about seeing differently. The Oakland A’s, constrained by budget, were forced to challenge conventional wisdom. They stopped paying for what was visible (batting averages, body type, “intangibles”) and instead paid for what actually drove outcomes but was underappreciated (on-base percentage). In short: they exploited inefficiency.

In his Acquired conversation, Lewis reflects on a similar dynamic across industries—how markets, people, and institutions repeatedly misprice what truly matters. The lesson isn’t just about being contrarian. It’s about being patient enough to let the truth play out.

That’s where “taking the longview” comes in.

In investing, as in baseball, the scoreboard updates constantly, but the real game unfolds over seasons (even generations!), not innings. Short-term noise is seductive and sometimes scary. It feels actionable. But it’s often just that: noise. The discipline is in identifying what actually compounds over time and then having the temperament to stick with it when it’s temporarily out of favor.

For our clients, that translates into something simple but difficult: staying invested in what works, even when it temporarily doesn’t feel like it. That’s what we’re doing every day. Helping our clients maintain the behavior that pays off in the long term.

The genius of Moneyball wasn’t the data. It was the willingness to endure looking wrong in the short term to be right over the long term. That’s really hard to do!

At Hill Investment Group, that’s the game we’re playing. Not predicting the next pitch, but building a process that wins over full seasons…full lifetimes.

In the end, the real advantage—whether in baseball or investing—isn’t speed. It’s clarity, patience, and the discipline to let time do the heavy lifting. Thank you for taking the long view with us.

If you’d like a new copy of Odds On (The Moneyball of investing) or want to gift it to a friend or family member, click here. We’re happy to share how it just might transform someone’s future and those that come after them.

Carl Richards, a longtime friend of the firm and someone many of you know through our events, books, and conversations over the years, generously sent this video in honor of the 10th anniversary of Odds On. Carl’s endorsement was featured on the front cover of the book, and his encouragement has meant a great deal to us from the very beginning.

For newer readers, Carl is the creator of the Sketch Guy column and is widely known for his work helping people think more clearly about money, behavior, and what really matters. He is the author of several books, including The Behavior Gap and his newest release, Your Money, and he also hosts podcasts including Behavior Gap Radio and 50 Fires. We hope this video brings you the same joy it brought us, especially if Odds On has shaped your thinking in some meaningful way too. Carl has a new book released not long ago called Your Money, reach out to us if you’d like a copy.