When Opening Day arrives, it brings optimism, but there is also a familiar temptation: to focus on what’s happening now instead of what actually matters over time.
I find myself returning to the ideas of Michael Lewis, not just his iconic baseball book Moneyball, but also his recent appearance on the Acquired podcast. The common thread isn’t baseball. It’s perspective.
Moneyball wasn’t really about baseball statistics—it was about seeing differently. The Oakland A’s, constrained by budget, were forced to challenge conventional wisdom. They stopped paying for what was visible (batting averages, body type, “intangibles”) and instead paid for what actually drove outcomes but was underappreciated (on-base percentage). In short: they exploited inefficiency.
In his Acquired conversation, Lewis reflects on a similar dynamic across industries—how markets, people, and institutions repeatedly misprice what truly matters. The lesson isn’t just about being contrarian. It’s about being patient enough to let the truth play out.
That’s where “taking the longview” comes in.
In investing, as in baseball, the scoreboard updates constantly, but the real game unfolds over seasons (even generations!), not innings. Short-term noise is seductive and sometimes scary. It feels actionable. But it’s often just that: noise. The discipline is in identifying what actually compounds over time and then having the temperament to stick with it when it’s temporarily out of favor.
For our clients, that translates into something simple but difficult: staying invested in what works, even when it temporarily doesn’t feel like it. That’s what we’re doing every day. Helping our clients maintain the behavior that pays off in the long term.
The genius of Moneyball wasn’t the data. It was the willingness to endure looking wrong in the short term to be right over the long term. That’s really hard to do!
At Hill Investment Group, that’s the game we’re playing. Not predicting the next pitch, but building a process that wins over full seasons…full lifetimes.
In the end, the real advantage—whether in baseball or investing—isn’t speed. It’s clarity, patience, and the discipline to let time do the heavy lifting. Thank you for taking the long view with us.
If you’d like a new copy of Odds On (The Moneyball of investing) or want to gift it to a friend or family member, click here. We’re happy to share how it just might transform someone’s future and those that come after them.
