There’s never a lack of news in the financial press:  new studies, new reporting, new crises, new opportunities … it never ends.

Some of it is worth heeding; most of it is just noise. One of our roles at Hill Investment Group is to help you find the hidden gems in all that “new news.” Here are two worthy reminders that trying to pick individual stocks or forecast the market’s many moods remains as ill-advised as ever.

On the Dangers of Stock-Picking …

In his recently published piece, “Hot Stocks Can Make You Rich. But They Probably Won’t,” Jeff Sommer of The New York Times reflects on how investors may be tempted to chase surging stocks in hot markets. “But,” he cautions (emphasis ours), “before you jump headlong into stock picking, you may want to consider the odds … [O]ver the long run, while the total stock market has prospered, most individual stocks have not.”

This may seem counterintuitive, but for supporting evidence, Sommer cites a new study by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University’s business school (my own alma mater). Sommer points out two remarkable findings from the study, often overlooked in all the excitement:

• “58 percent of individual stocks since 1926 have failed to outperform one-month Treasury bills over their lifetimes.”
• “[A] mere 4 percent of the stocks in the entire market … accounted for all of the net market returns from 1926 through 2015.”

Professor Bessembinder’s study concludes that individual stock picks are like lottery tickets. A stock picker may beat the odds and win big, but if you’d rather focus on winning sustainably while managing the risks, you’re better off accepting wider market returns.

On the Dangers of Market-Timing …

On the same day Sommer’s article appeared, The Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig published a nicely paired piece, “Sorry, Stock Pickers: History Shows You Underperform in Bad Markets, Too.”

You may need a subscription to read the entire article, but the title says a lot. Based on data points going back to the 1960s, Zweig notes: “The odds of finding a stock picker who can do better in down markets have long been less than 50/50.” Not only are the odds against those who try to beat the market, the costs tend to be high in every market, up or down. So, while stock pickers often tout their ability to shine the brightest when the markets are at their darkest, the evidence again suggests otherwise.

So, What’s New?

Bottom line, a traditional active investor faces hurdles that are simply too tall to be enticing, especially when there is a more logical, evidence-based strategy to lead the way. This may not be breaking news to anyone who’s been following our work for a while, but I’d say it’s still as fresh and relevant as ever.

While we don’t think of ourselves as the passive types, it’s interesting to see The Wall Street Journal shine its bright spotlight on passive investing and related evidence-based investing in its new series, “The Passivists.”

You can browse the entire series, or here are a couple of our favorite installments:

The Dying Business of Picking Stocks,  Anne Tergesen and Jason Zweig

News flash! “Investors are giving up on stock picking.” Our take on the matter: It’s about time.

Making Billions With One Belief: The Markets Can’t Be Beat, Jason Zweig

Featuring Dimensional Fund Advisors, with founder, chairman and co-CEO David Booth reflecting that “A little bit of judgment can make a difference.”

As the media turns its attention to the types of investment strategies we’ve been employing at Hill Investment Group since our founding, we wonder whether this will be a passing fad, a lasting improvement for investors or (as is so often the case in life), a little of both. Whatever. We’ll enjoy the wider coverage while it lasts, and still be encouraging you to Take the Long View with your investments, long after the spotlight has moved on.

Hill Investment Group likes to stay on top of the evidence-based investing world.  Below you will find three links to relevant and entertaining commentaries that have been shared with us.

Jared    |   Jason    |   John

• Jared Kizer thoughtfully explains the Brexit and its effects, or lack thereof in this article on MultiFactorWorld.
• Jason Zweig addresses the benefits of value and tilting in his Wall Street Journal article “Everything Is More Expensive Than It Looks”
• John Oliver humorously describes the sad but true state of many actively managed retirement plans in his show Last Week Tonight on HBO.  Please know in advance, there is a bit of lewd language and subject matter in this clip.