Before joining Hill Investment Group, I spent part of my career at Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA)—a firm whose investment philosophy has helped shape our own. DFA, like Hill, was founded on a simple but powerful belief: markets work. That foundational idea continues to shape how I view the world and reinforces my deep confidence in evidence-based investing.

It’s easy to think of “the market” as a complex or distant system. But in reality, we all interact with markets more often than we realize. Whether you’re selling a used couch on Facebook Marketplace, comparing mortgage rates, or negotiating with a contractor, you’re participating in a market—exchanging value based on available information, competing options, and mutual agreement. This same principle drives how trillions of dollars are traded globally every day.

What makes markets remarkable is their ability to reflect the collective wisdom, emotion, and activity of millions of participants. In the short term, markets can be unpredictable, reacting to headlines, global conflicts, elections, or economic data. But over time, they’ve proven to reward long-term thinking, discipline, and optimism.

Of course, that doesn’t mean every moment in the market feels good. Volatility can be unnerving, especially when headlines are loud and uncertainty is high. But as our co-founder Matt Hall recently reminded us, “sometimes you need to duck.” In other words, short-term turbulence is a natural part of investing. It’s the price we pay for the opportunity to pursue long-term growth.

If you take a step back, the broader trend is compelling. As David Booth, co-founder of DFA, noted in a recent commentary, markets delivered strong returns in early 2024, even amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. That’s not magic. That’s markets doing what they do best: translating risk, effort, innovation, and information into forward motion. It’s a reflection of human ingenuity—entrepreneurs solving problems, companies adapting, and people continuing to build and invest in the future.

At Hill, we believe that investing is ultimately an act of faith in global progress. When you invest in a broadly diversified portfolio, you’re investing in the belief that economies will continue to grow, that people will continue to innovate, and that the world will continue to move forward—not just in the U.S., but around the globe.

Yes, markets do go down. Historically, downturns have occurred roughly every six or seven years. But staying invested—despite those temporary declines—has historically been a reliable way to participate in long-term growth. On the other hand, trying to time the market or avoid short-term dips can carry a different risk: missing out on the recoveries that often follow.

There’s also a hidden cost to stepping away from the market: the mental load. The stress of trying to guess when to get in or out, or constantly second-guessing your plan, can be draining. Many investors eventually come to see the value of having a trusted advisor, not just to manage investments, but to help them focus on what matters most in their lives.

If you’re reading this, you’ve likely already embraced that philosophy. You’ve chosen to Take the Long View with us. Our encouragement now is simple: lean into that mindset. Let the markets do their job, while you focus on yours—being present with your family, pursuing your passions, and building a life filled with meaning and intention.

That’s the real return—and the heart of why we Take the Long View.

Disclosures:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Hill Investment Group does not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your legal or tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. References to third-party firms or individuals do not constitute endorsements or affiliations unless explicitly stated.

Timing the market can take on many different forms, but we’ve all done it at some point in our lives, even me. Sometimes the market is at an all-time high and we feel there is no way it can keep going up for much longer. We decide to wait for that market correction before investing. Sometimes there is turmoil in the world, markets are falling, and we want to wait to invest until that volatility subsides. In the moment, it always seems to feel obvious what the correct “market timing” strategy is.

Unfortunately, in the real world, timing the market is extremely difficult to do. As a firm of investment professionals, we recently tried to artificially time the market during a team Zoom…and we failed miserably. We used the website: Try to Time the Market to test ourselves. The website simulates a random 10-year historical return sequence from the US stock market. Over those ten years, you get one chance to sell and go to cash, and one chance to buy back into the market. You will beat the market return if you pick the right time to get out and get back in. Sounds easy, just sell when the market is at a high, and buy when it’s at a low.

As a firm, we only outperformed the market 40% of the time. Meaning 60% of the time, we would have been better off if we had just stayed invested the entire 10-year period. To make matters worse, when we did beat the market, it was only by a few percentage points, but when we lost to the market, it was usually by 50+%.

The game only takes a minute to play. Give it a few tries, and see how you fair.  We’d love to hear how you did.

Why did we fail at trying to time the market? On average, the market goes up a few hundredths of a percent every day. This means that each day your money is out of the market you are losing out on that potential gain. If the market actually went up a tiny bit every day, no one would ever think to try and time it. However, the volatility of the market makes trying to time it so enticing. If you just avoid some of those bad days, months, or years, it can make a drastic difference in your net wealth. The trouble is if you miss out on those great days, months, or years, it can also make a drastic difference in your net wealth. Given, on average, that the market goes up every day, you are better off not trying to play the timing game and simply stay invested. 

You’re better off taking the long view.

Imagine it’s a very still day, and you’re in a boat on the ocean.

There’s no wind.

No swell.

The water is as flat as a mirror.

The calm goes on just long enough for you to start to feel like it’s normal.

When a small wave finally comes… it feels big. When a regular wave comes… it feels huge.

As scary as it might feel, it’s important to remember that waves are normal.

In fact, occasional storms are normal.

And the last thing you want to do when you get into a storm is abandon ship.