Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Tag: market volatility

Unruffled Serenity

A “Royal Ease” Pose (photo by Matt Hall)

Unruffled serenity. We love that expression. It’s exactly what we seek to bring to our clients – especially when the volume of market noise rises to a roar, as it has in the latter half of 2018. We can’t claim credit for the phrase, though it does pair with our own tagline, Take the Long View®. Both are aimed at detaching emotions from market swings, whether high or low. The long-term view has always sloped up and to the right, but in the short run it’s unpredictable.

Who else can help bring a sense of calm in these times? We point you to Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal. Ever since Zweig launched his Intelligent Investor column a decade ago (succeeding the equally adept Jonathan Clements), it’s been far easier to list his few underwhelming columns than the vast majority we’ve enjoyed. His brilliant book, “Your Money & Your Brain” also has a permanent place on our recommended reading list.

As high a bar as Zweig has set for himself, we were particularly pleased by his recent column on market volatility and a behavioral bias known as herd mentality. The article explores a volume of evidence suggesting investors and even portfolio managers are strongly influenced by the “emotional contagion” of their neighbors. This results in market participants in communities, cities and even states mimicking one another’s trading habits, often to their detriment.

“Investors probably behave like their neighbors because gossip, news and beliefs spread by word of mouth,” says Zweig.

His suggested antidote to catching this communicable “disease” strongly reflects our own. Pointing to investment legend and economist Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffett’s mentor), Zweig describes how Graham went out of his way to cultivate “unruffled serenity,” strengthened by “a certain aloofness,” to ward off the constant peer pressure to react to random market noise.

Zweig concludes:

“With markets gyrating, unruffled serenity may become important again. If volatility scares you, spend more time with family and friends who don’t obsess over stocks. You’ll be happier now—and, probably, richer later on.”

A Closer Look at Global Diversification

We frequently mention the importance of employing global diversification to manage investment risks while pursuing expected returns. The broad concept is simple: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

That said, beyond the simple adage, questions may remain. A recent Dimensional Fund Advisors paper addressed one of them: Since U.S. stocks have outperformed international and emerging markets stocks over the last several years, is it still worthwhile to invest worldwide?

Click to enlarge

If you’d rather skip to the compelling conclusion, the short answer is, yes, global diversification is still worth it. Not only do the last several years tell us nothing about the next several years, they could lull U.S. investors into a false sense of home-biased complacency. To emphasize this point, we need only point to the 2000–2009 “lost decade,” when the S&P 500 took a depressing 10-year dive, while most of the world’s indexes soared.

Bottom line: You never know where your next source of best returns will be found, so it’s best to go global – and stay that way.

Warren Buffett’s Take on Economic Upsets

When this Wall Street Journal video of Warren Buffett’s reflection on the 2008 Financial Crisis debuted in early September 2018, a decade had passed since the beginning of the last big market crisis.

In light of current market volatility, it’s worth revisiting Buffett’s perspective today. Comparing the American economy to “an economic train moving down the track that has no ending,” he cautions against reacting to the occasional “derailments.”

“People talk about a fog of war,” says Buffett, “but there’s a fog of panic too, and during that panic, you’re getting inaccurate information, you’re hearing rumors. If you wait until you know everything, it’s too late.”

Words of wisdom that made sense in 2008. They still make sense today.

Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Hill Investment Group