We’re grateful to have Larry Swedroe as both a longtime friend to Hill Investment Group and a foundational voice in the evidence-based investing community. For decades, Larry has helped investors cut through noise, resist prediction-driven thinking, and stay anchored in the data – an approach that has shaped our work and benefited the clients we serve.

In his latest appearance on the October 22nd Excess Returns podcast (the same show our CIO, Matt Zenz, joined recently), Larry brings that perspective to today’s big conversations around tariffs, immigration, AI, and market structure.

“HTC” WARNING: Be forewarned, this is Highly Technical Content, best consumed by the heavy-duty fact finders in our audience and to all those who want to take a deeper dive into why we believe what we believe.

If you only have a few minutes…

Jump to 33:05, where Larry explains why smaller, more nimble funds can access deeper exposures in areas like small-cap value – an insight that reinforces one of the key advantages of our own approach to managing The Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). 

It’s a thoughtful, wide-ranging conversation, and we’re thankful for Larry’s ongoing partnership and the clarity he brings to evidence-based investing.

The Hill perspective is well known. It is our motto and our compass: Take the Long View. Many of our clients and friends of the firm also know our culture. We strive to be warm, caring, thoughtful, serious about our work, and human enough to enjoy it together.

As we grow, an important question stays front and center: how do we continue to deepen both our culture and our perspective at the same time, especially as our team is spread across the country?

Occasionally, we’re given a rare gift: the chance to be together in one place. Last month, nearly our entire nationwide team happened to be in St. Louis at the same time. Recognizing how uncommon that is, we chose to be intentional with the moment and invest it in something meaningful.

When author, artist, and former financial advisor Carl Richards was in town for our event, we extended the experience by taking the team to a once-in-a-lifetime exhibition by German artist Anselm Kiefer at the Saint Louis Art Museum. The visit was arranged by my wife, Jeana, who serves in a volunteer leadership role at the museum. Notably, Jeana and Rex Sinquefield, co-founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, were among the significant underwriters supporting the exhibition.

Together, we spent time immersed in the work of one of the most important living contemporary artists. Kiefer, who recently turned 80, is known for confronting history, destruction, and renewal on a monumental scale. His work takes the long view. From loss comes rebirth. From devastation, renewal. The physical scale of his art reinforces the message. Some things simply cannot be understood without stepping back and taking them in fully.

It is hard not to see the parallel.

Life is not smooth. Markets are not either. Both move in cycles that include setbacks, uncertainty, and moments that test conviction. Yet over time, periods of decline have been followed by recovery. Often the most meaningful progress comes from staying engaged rather than stepping away when things feel uncomfortable.

Clients often tell us that one of the most valuable things we do is help them stay on the ride. Not because there are guarantees. There are not. But because perspective matters. When you zoom out and look across decades rather than days, the long-term story of investing has been one of resilience and growth.

That perspective is deeply embedded in our culture. It shapes how we invest, how we advise, and how we support clients through both calm and turbulent moments.

Hill Investment Group is only 20 years old, but we are grounded in values and relationships that allow us to do our work with care, humility, and conviction. When we have moments to come together as a team, we try to use them intentionally to reinforce who we are and how we think.

We’re grateful to share this journey with you, and we look forward to continuing the ride together.

Happy Holidays.

As we approach year-end, a familiar pattern begins. Financial headlines fill with confident forecasts for the coming year. Market strategists, TV pundits, and well-known investment houses will soon release their precise targets for where the stock market “should” finish in 2026.

These predictions generate attention, but they don’t generate clarity.

When you look back at previous forecast seasons, the lesson is remarkably consistent:

Market predictions, including those from highly respected experts, are usually wrong.

The Track Record No One Promotes

Each year, strategists publish projected returns for the year ahead. Put them side by side and you get a colorful collage of potential “futures” often spanning double-digit differences in expected returns.

And yet, year after year, the actual market return tends to land well outside the average forecast. Why? Markets don’t cooperate with guesses. The chart below displays the median forecast over the past eight years and the actual market returns. Almost every year the market return differs from the median prediction by 15-20%. Yes. 15-20%. The range of outcomes is almost double the average historical annual return of 10%! 

Why Forecasters Miss the Mark

Even the best models can’t anticipate the unpredictable forces that shape markets. Sudden tariff announcements, geopolitical surprises, technological innovations, shifts in interest rates, or global health events can all impact markets in unpredictable ways.

None of these show up in the glossy prediction presentations at the start of the year. Remember, markets move on new information, and new information, by definition, hasn’t been forecast.

What moves stocks is not what experts expect — it’s what they couldn’t expect.

Therefore, investors should focus on what they can control and let markets work for them through the unpredictability. 

At Hill Investment Group, this is the core of our philosophy — Take the Long View. Instead of reacting to forecasts, we help clients anchor to what actually drives success:

• broad diversification
• Minimizing expenses and taxes
  
• disciplined rebalancing
  
• evidence-based decision-making
  
• patience through inevitable volatility
  

These principles have proven far more reliable than trying to anticipate where the S&P 500 will end next December.