There’s a longstanding belief propagated in financial services that withdrawing no more than 4% of your portfolio might provide you with a 30-year time horizon before running out of money. We certainly don’t base our advice on rules of thumb, and in this recent essay, the author reminds readers not to overly rely on any assumed rate of withdrawal. Click here to request a copy of the essay.

Many great discoveries are made by accident, and it turns out that Odds On: The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor is great for kids. Having one of the few advanced reader copies and curious to get some get a child’s perspective, I gently encouraged my 12-year-old daughter, Kathryn, to read it. She certainly enjoys reading, but business books are not her usual fare. While the rest of the family was watching Peyton Manning win Super Bowl 50, Kathryn was making deposits into her financial memory bank.

The next morning, while driving carpool, I asked her if she was enjoying the book. To my amazement, she had already completed it! To quote Kathryn: “I have a better understanding of what investing is…the old way is based on guessing and the new way is based on evidence.” While stated simply, it’s a powerful message that she’s sure to remember.

The first few weeks of 2016 were the worst start for the S&P 500 in history. So what should you do? The attached article serves as a reminder that negative returns in January (or any single month) are not meaningful because the subsequent 11-month returns have been positive 59% of the time, with an average return of 7%.

Accept the periods of negative volatility and remain disciplined. As the time period increases, the probability of realizing positive expected returns increases. Let patience lead to prosperity.