In 1999, a book changed the direction of my life.

At the time, I had recently dropped out of law school and was trying to figure out what was next. I was in that phase of life where you have plenty of energy and curiosity, very little skill, and a strong desire to do something meaningful that helps other people.

Around that time, I met Larry Swedroe.

Larry had written a book called The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need. I still remember sitting down with it and realizing that the first 100- pages quietly reshaped how I thought, not just about money and investing, but about what I wanted to do in my professional life. The approach felt more like a calling than a job.

Until then, I thought investing was about forecasts, predictions, and confident opinions about the future. Larry’s work introduced me to something very different. It was grounded in data and evidence. It showed that humility, discipline, and a long-term perspective were far more powerful than trying to outguess markets and pick winners.

It felt logical, rational, and deceptively simple to me. It smelled like the truth. And I loved it.

That realization set me on a course that eventually led to the creation of Hill Investment Group.

Years later, when we started the firm, I ran into an unexpected problem. We would give clients books like Larry’s because the ideas were so important, and we wanted them to understand our approach at a deeper level. Unfortunately, many people simply wouldn’t read them. Not because the books weren’t good. They were excellent. However, they were technical and written primarily for professionals rather than investors.

This dilemma got me thinking…and searching. I wanted something that could open the door a little wider for readers. Something relatable, understandable, memorable, and useful.

So I tried an experiment.

Instead of writing a technical guide, I “buried the vegetables” inside a story.

The result was Odds On: The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor. It follows my own coming of age in the investment world, where readers encounter the mentors, lessons, and ideas that shaped the philosophy behind our firm.

A few years after the book came out, I attended a book party on Park Avenue in New York surrounded by other authors. I struck up a conversation with a writer who had created a popular series of illustrated books. After listening to the story of why I had written Odds On, he paused and said something that stuck with me.

I had never heard the phrase before, so he explained.

The first ring develops the idea. The second ring takes that idea and translates it so a broader audience can understand it.

That description felt exactly right.

Larry was part of the first ring. His work changed how I saw investing. Odds On was my attempt to carry those ideas outward in a way that more people could absorb. More real investors, not just practitioners.

When the manuscript first circulated, a few agents told me the book would fail. It wasn’t prescriptive enough. I was warned that most non-fiction business books go nowhere and help no one, especially if the author does not already have a significant following.

Twelve years after writing it and ten years after publication, the story has been far more powerful and interesting than I ever imagined.

The book has traveled widely. It has been read by students, investors, and advisors across the country. It eventually made its way to the Netherlands, where it was translated into Dutch. Along the way, it sparked conversations, friendships, podcast interviews, speaking invitations, and thoughtful notes from readers around the world.

In many cases, the book became the first handshake between us.

Some readers eventually became clients. Some became collaborators and friends. Some changed the investing philosophy of their entire firm. A few even joined our team.

And in a way, the book changed my life too. Not because of copies sold or opportunities created, but because of the relationships that have grown out of it. Over the years, we’ve received more trust, gratitude, and kindness from long-time clients than I ever imagined possible. Compliance rules prevent us from sharing testimonials, but I can say this: the real riches have come from the people.

What began as an attempt to explain a philosophy ended up creating something much more meaningful: a community of people who believe in taking the long view.

Ideas move through rings. Someone discovers them. Someone translates them. Eventually, someone passes them forward.

That ripple effect is what we’re celebrating in this month’s journal.

Ten years after publication, we’re looking back at the journey of Odds On — the ideas behind it, the unexpected places it traveled, and the people it connected us with along the way.

And if the ideas resonate with you, perhaps the next ring starts with something simple: share the book with someone who might benefit from it.

Take the long view,

Matt Hall

Turbulent times test everyone’s resolve—whether you’ve taken the long view for decades, are just beginning to embrace it, or still find yourself leaning on stock-picking instincts. No matter your background, chances are you’re hearing more chatter lately—around the office, at the gym, or over cocktails—about “the market.” Some are panicked. Others are simply asking, “What should I do now? What are you doing?”

Here’s our suggestion: Pause. Breathe. And consider sharing a copy of Odds On with your friend or colleague. (Just call, email, or click here to send a hard copy or audio version.) If you’re feeling uneasy yourself, revisit the book—or better yet, let’s talk. Need a quick refresher? Start with the Odds On summary of key takeaways.

While there’s no substitute for a real conversation to calm the nerves, not everyone has an advisor on speed dial—or a sleepless night may strike at 2:00 AM. That’s where Odds On comes in. For nearly a decade, it’s helped readers stay grounded, especially when markets feel like a rollercoaster. Yes, the book will turn 10 before we know it—but the philosophy behind it is backed by over a century of evidence and forms the bedrock of how we invest at Hill Investment Group.

Styles may drift in and out of favor, but taking the Long View means committing to a philosophy that consistently puts the odds of long-term success on your side—regardless of today’s headlines.

So, if you’re feeling uneasy, give us a call. Or pick up your copy of Odds On and revisit a few highlighted pages. And if someone you care about could use a steadier hand, let us know where to send their copy. We can’t control the market—but we can help you control how you think about it.

As we rapidly approach the 8th Birthday of Odds On: The Making of an Evidence-Based Investor, the book (in all its formats) remains as relevant now as it did when it first launched in 2016. This is a testament to the timelessness of the Taking the Long View investment strategy.

Thousands of people have been exposed to a “new” way of investing, while many others have reaffirmed their beliefs in evidence-based investing. It is the best investment strategy when you take the long view and don’t try to gamble your life savings by timing the market, hitching yourself to a “guru,” or thinking that the “Magnificent 7” is an entertaining cocktail party topic but not the way to build and maintain wealth.

Many clients and friends of the firm, as well as our team members, have gifted Odds On in both its traditional hardback format as well as the audio version that Matt Hall reads to his listeners; however, some folks continue to ask for an “Executive Summary” or a shortcut to taking the long view. Here, we answer that wish with a two-page summary with key takeaways that we hope propels readers to read or listen to the entire “real thing.”

Virtually everyone who gifts Odds On is simply trying to help a friend or family member invest to maximize the odds of success. It’s great to pass on to younger family members, friends, and others who are curious about the path you’ve chosen as an investor and provides a fast and simple way for you to help those close to you.

Obviously, we’re ready to send each of these folks the book or audiobook, too, but this can satisfy an immediate need. For those who are ready, let’s schedule a time to talk by clicking this link.