On June 11th, Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX (SPCX), began trading on Nasdaq. The headlines were everywhere: A $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in stock market history. The media is suggesting that this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

The noise around IPOs is likely to continue throughout 2026, with more large IPOs planned this year, including OpenAI (known for ChatGPT) and Anthropic (known for Claude.ai).

These companies may change the world as we know it. Maybe not. As investors, we can be excited about these companies, but the evidence tells a clear story about IPOs and how we should treat them in our portfolio.

What the Evidence Shows on IPOs

Based on research from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), we can examine IPO performance across two timeframes: short and medium-term.

Over the short term (first trading day), IPOs typically perform well. This phenomenon is often referred to as the “IPO Pop.” Insiders and some large institutions can buy shares at the IPO price (unavailable to the public) and sell them at higher prices on the open market. Thus, the positive return from the IPO Pop is reserved for insiders and unavailable to the average investor. Individuals can only access shares on the open market meaning after the shares start trading. Often, investors may have to pay higher prices, thereby decreasing (or eliminating) the day-one returns that we see in the data and which the media loves to hype.

After the IPO Pop, over the next six to twelve months after listing, IPOs tend to lag the broader US stock market by 2-3% per year. Please reread the last sentence.

Obviously, these trends may not happen every time. Any individual IPO stock may be different. But the point is that, on average, IPOs tend not to be great investments, particularly when they have high valuations and negative profits, like SpaceX.

An Evidence-Based Alternative

There is good news here. As always, we can leverage this data and evidence to build better portfolios. The funds that we use at HIG typically wait for the IPO hype to fade and for insiders’ lock-up periods to end (increasing the supply of shares) before buying newly listed companies. What does this mean? We expect that, over time, all of our clients will have an appropriate allocation to many of these newly listed companies in the six to twelve-month timeframe as they meet the evidence-based criteria for inclusion in the portfolio.

The Temptation Is Real

We understand the emotional pull. When something feels “historic,” sitting on the sidelines can feel like missing out.

As advisors, our job is to keep clients focused on what the evidence says, not what the moment feels like. The same discipline that keeps you from panic-selling in a downturn is the same discipline that keeps you from buying into a frenzy.

A great company is worth rooting for. It is not always worth buying.

If you’d like to continue this discussion, please reach out to me at ryan@hillinvestmentgroup.com.