Welcome to our next article in our “Signal vs. Noise” series, which examines popular claims circulating online or in print. Our goal is to help you separate the signal from the noise. At Hill Investment Group, we believe good advice should be simple, clear, and grounded in evidence — not hype.

“The biggest risk is not having exposure to this transformational technology.” — JPMorgan Wealth Management, January 2026

The story feels so obvious: transformative technology, dominant companies, get in now. But a compelling technology story and a compelling investment are two totally different things. Thus far in 2026, three of the largest AI companies on the planet reported some of their best quarters ever – and watched their stock prices drop. Here’s why that’s not as surprising as it sounds.

A stock’s price is the market’s collective best guess at everything a company will ever earn, discounted to today. It’s like how you can’t get a bargain on a house in a neighborhood that everyone knows is great – that desirability is in the asking price. In general, AI companies’ stocks trade at steep premiums compared to the broader market. That’s not necessarily right or wrong; it’s the market saying, “We expect extraordinary things.”

Exhibits A, B, and C

NVIDIA Corp – the designer of the AI chips that power the data centers behind virtually every major AI application in use today

• February 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for revenue, profits, and future earnings guidance – the stock fell 5.5%

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – the company that physically manufactures chips for NVIDIA, Apple, and virtually every major AI company

• April 2026 – beat all earnings estimates and set all-time records for profits for the fourth consecutive quarter – the stock fell 3%

ASML Holdings – the Dutch company that makes specialized machines used to produce TSMC’s chips; without ASML, there is no modern semiconductor industry

• April 2026 – beat revenue and profits estimates, while increasing their full-year guidance for 2026 – the stock fell 6%

These three companies are worth ~$5.5 trillion combined and are critical parts of the global AI backbone. They delivered, but the market said, “We already knew.”

These examples aren’t a reason to avoid AI investments entirely. Instead, they serve as a timely reminder that stock prices already reflect the market’s expectations, and that expecting a great company to keep being great isn’t the same as expecting a great return.

The more useful question for your financial future isn’t “will AI change the world?” It probably will. The better question is: “Is my portfolio built to succeed regardless of whether these companies meet the market’s sky-high expectations for them?”

Your portfolio already owns AI. At Hill, we invest in global capitalism, which means that you already own NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, and every other company driving or benefiting from this technology as part of a diversified portfolio. Put simply, you get to participate in the upside if AI exceeds expectations, but you’re also not overexposed if these companies fall short.

Decades of financial research show that the most reliable path to investment success is owning the whole market, staying diversified, and tilting toward companies that are attractively priced with strong profits. Instead of taking a bet on (or against) AI, you have a strategy built to succeed whether or not AI stocks live up to the hype.

Our job is simple but critically important: put the odds of investment success in your favor by sticking to the evidence, not the headlines.

Disclosure

We are excited to share that the Longview Advantage Fixed Income ETF (LVIG) officially launched on March 9th. As of March 31st, the fund has already reached $90 million in assets, reflecting strong early interest from advisors and investors.

We recently sat down with Nasdaq’s Just for Funds to walk through the strategy, its origin, and how it works in practice. You can watch the full discussion here.

For advisors who follow our work, if LVIG could be relevant for your clients, we would welcome the conversation.

Every February, I open one envelope with unusual curiosity: my 1099 from our custodian. It shows how much “income” my investments produced last year.

As an investor, I appreciate what that number represents. As a taxpayer, I also know what comes next: plugging it into a projection and watching how it changes what we’ll owe in April.

For me, it’s manageable. I’m still early in my career, and my portfolio is mostly stocks. But for many of the families we serve at Hill, this number can grow large enough that it doesn’t only affect their tax return — it starts to affect their entire financial plan.

And historically, there hasn’t been much we could do about it… until now. 

Longview Advantage Fixed Income ETF (LVIG) is an ETF from our research partner, Longview Research Partners. Its aim is to solve a part of planning we historically could not control: Traditional bond investments generate taxable income whether you need it or not.

LVIG is built to avoid those automatic income distributions. Meaning more of the return stays inside the portfolio, which gives us control over how income shows up in your plan.

Like EBI, LVIG will be used inside Hill’s models. It may not be noticeable for younger, equity-heavy investors today. But as portfolios shift over time toward a higher allocation of fixed income, LVIG becomes a meaningful planning tool as well as an outstanding investment.

1. Roth IRA conversions: Less portfolio income means more flexibility to convert traditional Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) to Roth IRAs during lower-income years.

2. Asset location: We can comfortably hold fixed income in taxable accounts and reserve IRA and Roth space for equities, where long-term growth benefits most.
   
   
3. Medicare and income cliffs like IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount), NIIT (Net Investment Income Tax), AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax):  Keeping income lower makes it easier to stay below thresholds that trigger higher premiums and additional taxes.
   
   
4. Trust planning: Trusts hit top tax brackets more quickly than individual tax brackets. Therefore, minimizing ordinary income allows trustees to distribute based on need, not tax pressure.
   
   
5. Estate planning and step-up in basis: More return remains to compound as unrealized growth that may receive a step-up for heirs instead of getting taxed each year.
   
   
6. Capital gains control: Lower income gives us more favorable opportunities to harvest gains at lower tax rates.
   
   
7. Retirement cash flow: We can create distributions intentionally by selling shares at long-term capital gains tax rates rather than generating unpredictable taxable income.

Most of these benefits become especially impactful for clients who are retired or approaching retirement, have large taxable portfolios, are doing Roth conversions, have trusts, or are mindful of Medicare premium thresholds.

For younger clients, this may feel less important today. But over time, as allocations shift toward bonds, it becomes one of the more impactful planning levers available.

This is a good example of the subtle but powerful improvements we like making for clients at Hill Investment Group. Changes that not only improve your investment outcomes, but also make your plan work better behind the scenes.

While LVIG is something we are bringing to Hill portfolios, it will be a publicly traded ETF and available to all investors. Therefore, if you know someone navigating retirement, taxes, or trust planning who could benefit from greater flexibility, feel free to share this with them or have them reach out to us directly to see how we can be most helpful. Here’s the best link to get in touch with us.