Signal vs. Noise: Stock Market Concentration Concerns
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Category: Timely Topic
Signal vs. Noise: Private Equity

Private equity funds, which buy and sell companies not listed on a stock exchange, are increasingly being marketed to individual investors. The pitches promote democratizing investing by giving the average investor access to exclusive deals, huge target returns, and a chance to “invest like an institution.”
Headline returns for these investments often look enticing, but research shows that those returns rarely reflect the actual economic experience of investors. For individual investors, the gap between perception and reality can be significant.
Tradeoffs to Consider
High Fees – Private Equity Funds often charge 2% fees on all assets plus an additional 20% of all profits. This introduces a significant hurdle that few private equity managers can overcome when compared to public equity investments. The funds we use to access public markets have an average fee of 0.2%. One-tenth the fee andno additional performance fee.
Misleading Returns – Internal rate of return (IRR) is commonly used to report private equity returns. However, IRR’s calculation depends heavily on the timing of cash flows to the investor. Private Equity firms can game these numbers by manipulating cash flows, making IRR return numbers not comparable to the return numbers you see from public markets. For example, the hypothetical return stream below has an IRR of 33% but an actual return on capital closer to 3%.
Investors should focus on the overall growth of their wealth, not return figures grounded in misleading return metrics.
Lack of Access/Liquidity – Private Equity funds typically have high investment minimums, long lockups, and capital call contracts that make it difficult for investors to allocate money to more than a handful of funds. This creates challenges in diversifying investments across the private equity industry, decreasing the likelihood of achieving reliable long-term investment outcomes. The lack of diversification turns investing in this asset class closer to gambling than a reliable long-term investment strategy.
An Evidence-Based Alternative
At Hill, we believe wealth is best built through broadly diversified, transparent, and low-cost portfolios that match your personal risk profile. Public markets offer exposure to the same economic engine as private equity – global economic growth and human innovation – without the high fees and illiquidity.
New research from Dimensional Fund Advisors puts the conclusion succinctly:
“Broadly diversified, transparent, and low-cost public market strategies provide investors with reliable access to global equity and credit risk premia – without the costs and opacity of private funds.”
We agree.
The Bottom Line
Private markets are often marketed as a path to superior returns, but the data tells a different story. Historically, once you adjust for fees, misleading returns, and illiquidity, private equity performance looks a lot like public stock market performance – just with more complexity and buzzwords.
The real question here is not whether private equity occasionally succeeds – it does. It’s whether it offers long-term, risk-adjusted, after-fee advantages over public markets.
The evidence suggests: not really.
Hill Investment Group Partners, LLC (HIG) is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information in this publication is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Nothing contained herein should be construed as individualized investment, tax, or financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed.
Investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Future returns may differ significantly from past returns due to market and economic conditions, among other factors.
Performance Disclosure (Hypothetical)
Hypothetical or model performance results, when presented, do not represent actual client performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect the impact of material economic or market factors that would have affected an adviser’s decision-making if managing actual assets. Hypothetical results are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as guarantees of future performance. Actual client results may differ.
Charts
Charts, graphs, formulas, probability visuals, and other illustrations included in this publication are intended to demonstrate concepts and provide context. They are not intended to be used alone to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. These illustrations provide limited information and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.
Reminder, The Rick Hill Award Nominations Still Open

When Rick Hill officially retired in 2023, our team wanted to continue celebrating his incredible legacy with the Rick Hill Award. As you may recall from an earlier post, I am the proud first recipient.
This annual award, paired with financial recognition, is presented to the team member who best exemplifies living our firm’s values (see below for the list) throughout the prior year. We’ve been paying close attention to those moments in 2025 when teammates have gone above and beyond, and we want to include our clients in the “voting” process.
So, please consider taking the time to nominate someone you believe deserves this honor! If you’ve had a meaningful interaction with a team member that reflects Rick’s and our firm’s values, please email Matt Hall directly. Please include the individual’s name and one or two examples of why you are nominating this person. We value your insight and are grateful for your help in recognizing the teammates who make our firm extraordinary.
The nomination window closes soon, so don’t wait!
We’ll share the news about this year’s winner right here in the February 2026 issue! If you need a refresher on the Hill Investment Group Values, revisit this article, otherwise nominate someone below.
Back to Basics: What Drives Long-Term Investing Success

If you’re traveling this Thanksgiving and want something both smart and calming to listen to, we have a great pick. Investing 101 – It’s a short, clear episode from the Rational Reminder podcast, which highlights the same evidence-based investing principles we believe in.
In the episode, hosts Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson revisit the research-backed ideas that support a disciplined investing experience: owning markets instead of trying to time them, staying globally diversified, keeping costs low, and maintaining focus amid market noise.
We’re sharing it because even the most experienced long-view investors benefit from revisiting these fundamentals, especially during a season that’s often busy and hectic, yet ultimately about gratitude and perspective.
Pop in your headphones, take a walk, or queue it up on your flight home, and share it with a friend. It’s 40 minutes well spent.
As this season of gathering kicks off, if someone you care about could benefit from our approach, give us a call or email us here.
