When Rick Hill officially retired in 2023, our team set out to celebrate his incredible legacy with the Rick Hill Award. As you may recall from an earlier post, I was honored to be the first recipient.

This annual award recognizes the team member who best embodies our firm’s values throughout the year. In 2025, we’ve been watching for the quiet, consistent moments when teammates go above and beyond, and we’d love your help in identifying those who deserve this honor.

If you’ve had a meaningful interaction with a member of our team that reflects Rick’s spirit and our firm’s values, please email Matt Hall directly. Just share their name and a brief example of why you’re nominating them. Your insight helps us recognize the teammates who make our firm extraordinary.

Nominations close January 31, 2026.
We’ll share this year’s winner in the February 2026 issue.

Nominate a Team Member

Corporate values are often empty statements on walls or stickers on laptops. Ours aren’t. We try to live them quietly and consistently, not plaster them everywhere. Below are the six values that guide our work every day.

EVIDENCE-BASED INVESTING EVANGELISTS
We don’t choose gunslingers and gurus to manage the real wealth of clients or our own. We favor evidence-based investment approaches that are designed to be disciplined, diversified, and repeatable over time.

MAKING FRIENDS IS OUR BUSINESS
Inspired by the old Anheuser-Busch mantra, relationships are at the heart of what we do. Sometimes, friends become clients, and often, clients develop genuine connections with our team. “There will be neither frustration nor failure where there is friendship.”

CHEERS AND THE FOUR SEASONS
Hill Investment Group is a place where we truly know our clients. We know what they like to drink and the preferences that make them who they are. We see clients and serve them in a manner befitting a familiar yet high-end experience. We value hospitality, reliability, and excellence.

PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE
The rewards of the long view are only possible when we help our clients stay focused on what truly matters.

CANDOR
We value the truth (no spin) and commit to sharing it with one another and our clients, especially when it’s hard.

FUN GOES WITH BUSINESS
We take our work seriously and have fun in the process! We celebrate our wins and recognize life and work milestones at every chance.

As we enter the holiday season, we’re grateful for the trust you place in us each year. This year also marks an important milestone for Hill: our team now stretches from California to New York, giving us broader coverage and greater availability than at any point in our 20-year history.

Holiday Hours

Our office will be closed on:

•   Nov 27–28
•   Dec 24–26
•   Jan 1

New Year’s Eve (Dec 31): We’ll close early at 1:00 PM.

Even when our office is closed, we’re here for anything time-sensitive. You can always reach us at service@hillinvestmentgroup.com or text our main number at (314) 448-4023, and we’ll get right on it. 

Wishing you and your family a peaceful, meaningful season!

My 18-month-old son’s favorite song right now has a catchy chorus that goes, “Bubble, bubble, bubble… POP!” and as with any toddler favorite, we sing it constantly, so it’s always stuck in my head. Lately, every time I open my WSJ app and see the word “bubble” splashed across a headline, the soundtrack kicks in automatically.

In the song, the bubbles always pop. So, should we be preparing for a big pop in markets, as the headlines suggest? Part of taking the long view is refusing to react to headlines. Our philosophy centers on tuning out the noise and anchoring decisions in evidence. But with all the AI “bubble” chatter, it’s worth taking a moment to examine this idea from a research-backed point of view, one that might surprise you, but ultimately help you rise above the noise.

What If Bubbles Don’t Exist?

Eugene Fama, Nobel laureate and architect of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (and a major influence on Hill’s investment philosophy), has a view that stops people in their tracks: He doesn’t believe in bubbles.

Not because he thinks markets are perfect…they aren’t. And not because prices never fall…we know that they do. He challenges the idea of bubbles because, as he puts it, you can’t scientifically prove that a price was ‘wrong’ in the moment.

Here’s what this means:

1. We only call something a bubble in hindsight.

When prices rise sharply, no one knows if it’s irrational because future growth could justify it. We only label it a “bubble” after a drop, which means we’re using new information to judge old prices.

2. A crash isn’t evidence of a bubble.

A sharp decline doesn’t mean earlier prices were foolish. It may simply reflect changing expectations, new information, or shifting economic conditions.

3. If something looks obviously overpriced, markets should correct it.

Nobel Prize winner, University of Chicago Professor, and Dimensional Director Eugene Fama argues that calling something a bubble implies that most investors were collectively irrational, something he’s deeply skeptical of.

Whether or not you fully agree with him, his perspective matters because it reminds us of something essential: the story of markets is driven more by narrative and emotion than data.

How this Connects to Your Plan

At Hill, we don’t spend time predicting bubbles. We don’t try to guess where the top is. We don’t build your plan around today’s headlines. Instead, we build portfolios (and relationships) around a different set of ideas:

• Evidence beats emotion.
• Your financial life shouldn’t be swayed by headlines.
• And you don’t need to predict what comes next.

So, Are We in a Bubble? The honest, evidence-based, answer is that no one knows. And we don’t need to. The goal isn’t to call the top. It’s to stay invested, stay disciplined, and stay focused on your long-term vision, the one we’re building together.

If you’d like to talk more about this, call us or email at askanadvisor@hillinvestmentgroup.com to set up a time.