Market volatility is back in the headlines, and if you’re feeling uneasy, you’re not alone. Over the past month, markets have given us another sharp reminder of what it means to be an investor. On April 2nd and 3rd, the S&P 500 fell a combined 10.7%—a drop that understandably triggered anxiety for some. And just when the idea of sitting on the sidelines might have felt tempting, the market turned on a dime. On April 9th, the S&P 500 gained 10.5% in a single day, quickly recapturing much of the prior decline.

That’s the market. It moves. Sometimes violently. In hourly bursts. Often unpredictably. And always in response to new information.

One of the best examples of this came on April 9th at 1:18 p.m. Eastern, when President Trump posted on Truth Social that he would lift tariffs on all countries other than China. Within ten minutes of that post, the S&P 500 had surged nearly 6%. Markets are incredibly efficient at digesting new information, whether it’s about trade policy, inflation, interest rates, or elections. The current price of a security reflects the consensus expectations of millions of participants, each with skin in the game.

So what should you do in the face of this kind of uncertainty?

Stick with your plan.

At Hill Investment Group, every client portfolio is built around a long-term strategy, not short-term noise. Your plan was designed with the understanding that markets will experience sharp moves, both up and down. We don’t pretend to know what tomorrow’s headlines will be or how the market will respond to them. What we do know—based on decades of data and mountains of research—is that markets are priced to deliver a positive expected return every single day. That’s why being in the market is so critical.

Missing just a handful of the best days has an outsized impact on long-term results. And as we just saw, those days often come immediately after the worst ones. Getting out and waiting “until the dust settles” may feel comforting, but it’s rarely profitable.

Global diversification is also part of the plan.
This year offers a good reminder of why. While the S&P 500 is down 9.7% year-to-date as of April 22nd, international developed and emerging markets are actually up 6.3%. No one can consistently predict which areas of the market will outperform in the short term. That’s why we build portfolios that don’t rely on a single country or asset class to deliver returns. Diversification ensures that when one area of the market struggles, others may pick up the slack. It’s not just about reducing risk—it’s about improving the odds of long-term success.

Instead of reacting to volatility, we encourage our clients to focus on what can be controlled—things that actually add value:

• Tax Loss Harvesting – When markets decline, we actively harvest losses to offset gains elsewhere in your portfolio. This reduces your tax bill while keeping you invested.
• Rebalancing – We monitor portfolios to ensure your exposure to risk remains aligned with your plan, buying when assets are down and trimming when they’ve run up.
• Staying the Course – Most importantly, we help you stay focused on the big picture. Financial goals aren’t achieved in a week or a month—they’re met over years and decades by maintaining discipline and a long-term perspective.

Trying to respond to every market move or every tweet is not an investment strategy. It’s gambling. It’s a recipe for regret.

So yes, volatility has returned. And no, we can’t predict what comes next. But we can control how we respond. And our response is grounded in evidence, backed by decades of research, and aligned with your goals.

We’re here to help you take the long view. That’s not just a tagline—it’s a philosophy that has helped our clients build and preserve wealth through all kinds of markets. And it’s one we continue to believe in today.

Stick with it.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Markets cranked up the drama in April—with back-to-back days that whipsawed the S&P 500 in both directions. It was a powerful reminder of how misleading short-term moves can be. This piece from Dimensional breaks down the numbers and underscores a lesson we live by: Taking the long view isn’t just smart—it’s essential.

Read the full article

When we announced at the end of last year that we were modernizing our quarterly reporting, we didn’t realize that three months later, we’d be living through another example of why we want to de-emphasize short-term performance. In this letter, I want to share insights on why we’re focusing on long-term success over short-term fluctuations and offer reassurance during volatile times.

The markets have been gyrating over the past few weeks, and the volume of noise in the investment media is louder than usual. It’s yet another period of heightened fear and uncertainty almost guaranteed to trigger unnecessary panic among undisciplined investors. Whenever we pass through one of these phases, I think about a story I heard from a colleague way back at the start of my career as an advisor, which I wish I could share with every investor.

My co-worker had just returned from his first whitewater rafting trip and was telling me about the experience. He showed up on day one, never having been in a raft before, and was surprised to learn they would be running a Class V rapid—the most difficult and dangerous level on the whitewater rating scale. Naturally, he was a little scared about what he’d gotten himself into.

Before the group climbed into the boat, the guide laid out the rules for a safe trip. The most important one, he said, was to listen for him to yell “DUCK!” When he did that, everyone was supposed to dive into the center of the raft and keep their heads down until he told them it was OK to look up. He explained that there were two reasons why they needed to do that:

1. It would stabilize the raft during the roughest sections of the rapids.
2. The guests didn’t need to see what they were dealing with anyway—it would just make them even more scared.

Since I heard that story years ago, I’ve thought about how “Duck!” is pretty good investing advice, too. Every investor’s life will have stretches of ferocious volatility, but you still need to ride the river to the end. When we’re going through these bumpy periods, what good does it do to watch your portfolio performance? They’re always temporary, so isn’t it better to duck and look up when things calm down again? Just as the rafting guide’s call to ‘duck’ stabilized the ride, our advice to focus on the long-term helps stabilize your investment journey.

The good news is that Hill Investment Group clients have clearly taken this lesson to heart. Our phones haven’t been ringing with every new piece of economic news or market swing. No one is panicking. This obviously isn’t your first trip through the rapids. So whether you look at your portfolio performance this month or keep your head down, I’m confident you won’t be swayed from the long-term plan we’ve built together.

Key takeaways:

• Stay calm during market volatility. It’s temporary and your portfolio is built for it.
• Trust the long-term strategy.
• Avoid being swayed by short-term noise.

As always, we can’t be sure how rough this stretch of water will ultimately be or when things will settle down. But we are committed to guiding you through whatever the markets deliver and keeping you focused on what truly matters—your long-term success. We deeply appreciate your trust in our approach. It’s what allows us to help you navigate the ups and downs with confidence.

Your client portal always has up-to-date portfolio performance available. So you can check on your portfolio any time you want, but it’s more than OK not to check those numbers. In fact, at the risk of telling you something you already know, you might not want to bother.

If you’d like to review your portfolio or discuss any adjustments to your strategy, please don’t hesitate to call or schedule an appointment.

Together, we’ll ride out the rapids and keep our eyes on the horizon.