10 Years of Odds On
Spring Cleaning: Winning by Getting Organized
Announcing the Launch of LVIG
Don’t Hire Us Because You Like Us
The Freedom to be Present
Long View Summer Reads
As we’ve kicked of the official start to summer, many of our clients and friends are looking for some great reading material that different than the New York Times list. Further, after our recent webinar with Marilyn Wechter, we asked her to share a few of her favorite books that explore families and their relationship with money that go a bit deeper than what we could cover in just an hour. Some we’ve highly recommended before and others are new.
Enjoy! If you have any questions about what you read or a book sparks a desire to dig deeper, have a conversation, or hold a family meeting to discuss the topic, we’re here to answer questions and facilitate conversations. That’s how families stay together and multi-generational wealth is both created and perpetuates itself. Open communication.
Here we go:
- The Thin Green Line – Paul Sullivan
- The Art of Spending Money – Morgan Housel (Bonus points if you also listen to Matt’s podcast episode here with Morgan)
- Wealth in Families – Charles Collier
Finally, as we continue to celebrate the 10th Anniversary of Odds On, please consider sending a copy (book, Kindle, or audiobook) to someone you are trying to help whether it be a family member or friend. I say “help” very intentionally because why else would you make any recommendation to anyone? You are simply trying to be helpful, and HIG is working to make it easy for you to show up in that role, because that spirit of helpfulness is one of the qualities we value most in our clients and friends of the firm. Request Odds On here.
We can’t wait to hear from you.
Signal vs. Noise: What State Pension Funds Can Teach Investors About Chasing Performance

State pension funds are often viewed as the “smart money” of the investment world.
They employ large internal investment staffs. They hire teams of consultants. They have access to private investments unavailable to most investors. They negotiate lower fees because of their enormous scale. They conduct deep due diligence on hedge funds, private equity managers, venture capital firms, and real estate partnerships.
In theory, if anyone should outperform a simple index portfolio, it should be them.
Yet the evidence tells a very different story.
A well-known paper by Jeffrey Hooke and John Walters, “Wall Street Fees and Investment Returns for 33 State Pension Funds,” examined the results of large public pension systems and compared them to low-cost passive benchmarks. The conclusion was striking: the median pension fund underperformed a basic indexed portfolio by roughly 1.6% annually over the study period.
That gap may not sound large at first glance, but compounded over decades, it becomes enormous.
More Complexity Did Not Lead to Better Results
Over the past two decades, many pension funds have dramatically increased their exposure to:
- Private equity
- Hedge funds
- Venture capital
- Tactical asset allocation
- Alternative credit
- Real assets
- “Opportunistic” strategies
These investments are often marketed as sophisticated tools capable of delivering higher returns, downside protection, or diversification benefits unavailable in public markets.
But despite all of the resources available to these institutions, the end results frequently disappointed.
Importantly, many of these pension portfolios were also taking more risk than a traditional 60/40 stock and bond portfolio. They often had:
- Higher equity exposure
- Significant leverage embedded in private investments
- Illiquid assets
- Increased credit risk
- More aggressive return assumptions
In other words, many pensions were not underperforming because they were conservative. They were underperforming despite taking greater risks and paying substantially higher fees.
The Cost of Chasing “What’s Next”
One of the most persistent themes in investing is the belief that there must always be a better answer somewhere else:
- A smarter manager
- A new asset class
- A more complicated strategy
- A niche product that can unlock hidden returns
But investing evidence has consistently shown that expected returns are driven primarily by exposure to compensated risks, not complexity.
Chasing fashionable investments or attempting to time markets often introduces:
- Higher fees
- Greater taxes
- More operational friction
- Behavioral mistakes
- Lower transparency
- Increased implementation challenges
And those costs compound quietly over time.
The pension fund experience is a powerful reminder that access alone does not create better outcomes.
Simplicity Is Often an Advantage
At Hill Investment Group, we believe investors are generally better served by focusing on:
- Broad diversification
- Evidence-based sources of expected return
- Low costs
- Tax efficiency
- Disciplined implementation
- Long-term behavior
This does not mean investors should avoid innovation or thoughtful portfolio design. But complexity should have a very high burden of proof.
The reality is that many of the world’s largest and most sophisticated institutions have struggled to outperform simple, low-cost indexed approaches, despite having every conceivable advantage.
For most investors, the lesson is not that investing is easy. It is that successful investing often requires resisting the constant pressure to make it unnecessarily complicated.
Beyond the Portfolio: Rick & Lynn Hill
Investing in People
Some people make an impact through their work. Others make an impact simply through the way they treat people. Rick and Lynn Hill have done both.
Many of you know Rick as the co-founder of Hill Investment Group and someone whose vision helped shape our firm into what it is today. Outside of HIG, Rick and Lynn have also spent years quietly supporting organizations that make St. Louis a stronger community.
The Hills have been longtime supporters of Lift for Life Academy, a St. Louis charter school focused on helping students and families through education, support, and opportunity. Last month, they were honored at Lift for Life Academy’s annual Fashion Show for their continued generosity and commitment.
Anyone who knows Rick and Lynn probably isn’t surprised by that recognition. What has always stood out to me about them is that their generosity is both genuine and personal. They care deeply about people, and they believe in showing up consistently over time. Not just a pop-in. In many ways, their support of Lift for Life reflects the same philosophy that has shaped Hill Investment Group for years: Take the Long View.
At HIG, we often talk about long-term thinking in the context of investing, but Rick and Lynn live that idea in a much broader way. They understand that the most meaningful things in life, strong relationships, thriving communities, and lasting change, are built slowly and intentionally over time.
While Rick is well known professionally, Lynn has clearly been an equal partner in their commitment to family, philanthropy, and community. In fact, Rick calls Lynn his “secret weapon.” Together, they have created a life centered around success, generosity, and stewardship.
We are proud to celebrate Rick and Lynn — not only as longtime clients and friends of the firm, but as people who continue to make St. Louis better by taking the long view in the ways that matter most.
If you’re interested in discussing ways to get more involved in your community, let’s talk.
