WSJ columnist Jason Zweig elegantly analyzes and answers a current phenomenon: “It’s a stock picker’s market. So why aren’t more stock pickers doing better?”

Would you consider your own portfolio “diversified” if only three stocks accounted for more than 20% of the value of the portfolio? You might be excited at a cocktail party, but how well would you sleep if only one stock (Nvidia) accounted for more than 30% of the year-to-date return of the S&P 500?

Read on to learn more about how correlation and concentration are confounding stockpickers while following an evidence-based, long-view approach ignores the noise and chugs along.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training.  This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk and, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Return will be reduced by advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in the management of a client’s account. Consult with a qualified financial adviser before implementing any investment strategy.

At Hill Investment Group, we recognize that when a few clients raise the same question, it’s likely that more have similar thoughts. To better serve you, we’re introducing a new segment in our newsletter where we’ll address common questions and how we approach them. To submit questions for future newsletters, email us at info@hillinvestmentgroup.com

Hey Hill, how can I think differently about the total return of my portfolio vs. focusing on income investing alone?

Throughout our working lives, we relied on our earned income to support our day-to-day expenses. Each year, we worked, earned a salary, and used that money to cover necessities such as food, housing, entertainment, and childcare. A consistent income stream provided us with a sense of security to fulfill our needs and save for retirement. 

However, after retiring, the question arises: where will the income come from to sustain our lifestyle? While some may come from pensions or social security, these sources may not always be sufficient. As a result, investors often dip into their savings portfolio to supplement their income.

When considering how to invest their savings, investors tend to zero in on needing “income” to replace their salaries. They may have a funding gap and want to ensure their portfolio will yield a certain yearly income level through fixed-income or dividend-paying stocks. Although this approach is intuitive and may give retirees peace of mind, it does not maximize the odds of financial success. Why not?

Investment returns come from two places. Income (dividends and interest) and capital appreciation (prices going up). By focusing solely on income, you forgo the primary driver of returns: capital appreciation. 

When you go to the store and buy new clothes, you don’t care if you pay with cash from your left pocket or your right pocket. Money is money, and the source is irrelevant. The same is true of investment returns. It does not matter whether those returns come from dividends or prices going up. What matters is the total amount of money you have. By focusing on income returns or just the money in your left pocket, you are not investing in the stocks or bonds with the highest expected total return. You are not maximizing the money you have across both your pockets. At the end of the year, this will leave you with less total savings.

Capital appreciation generally drives total returns much more than income. Additionally, capital appreciation receives favorable tax treatment. Gains from price increases are taxed at a lower rate than income. Thus, an investor would prefer their return come from capital appreciation vs. income because, after taxes, they will have more money to spend. 

Therefore, rather than thinking about how much income my portfolio generates year by year, we encourage our clients to consider the total value of their investments and what that total level can sustain in terms of spending over a lifetime, understanding the ebbs and flows of the market. This approach maximizes our clients’ odds of achieving their financial goals.

Hill Investment Group is a registered investment adviser. Registration of an Investment Advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. This information is educational and does not intend to make an offer for the sale of any specific securities, investments, or strategies.  Investments involve risk and, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Return will be reduced by advisory fees and any other expenses incurred in the management of a client’s account. Consult with a qualified financial adviser before implementing any investment strategy.

This year’s Hill Investment Group summer bash celebrated our 19th birthday! In typical fashion, a casual outdoor soirée was hosted by Matt Hall and his wife Lisa at their home in Clayton.  

While we enjoyed a delicious and unique meal provided by Kirk’s Traveling Kitchen, The Gaslight Squares provided an upbeat musical atmosphere. To close out their set, our Sherrie Dickson serenaded the team with her beautiful rendition of Moon River!

This year, we also had a few new faces at the party and a very special guest – Miss Saronda Summerland, our beloved mail carrier and friend (pictured above, along with Anna Farrell, Matt Hall, and me). Saronda has always gone the extra mile for Hill Investment Group, and we will miss seeing her every day now that the St. Louis office has moved into our new space. Yes, we tried to get her to switch her route, but she sadly declined. 

Thankfully – we’ve already planned several ways to keep in touch because her sense of humor, candid communication, and comedic genius put a smile on our faces whenever she’s around.  

Making friends is still, and always will be our business.