Signal vs. Noise: Stock Market Concentration Concerns
A New Book, A Familiar Message: Stay Calm
The Freedom to Choose What Comes Next
Living Our Values: Reflections From Hill’s 2026 Summer Interns
The Player or the House?
Category: Philosophy
Signal vs. Noise: Private Equity

Private equity funds, which buy and sell companies not listed on a stock exchange, are increasingly being marketed to individual investors. The pitches promote democratizing investing by giving the average investor access to exclusive deals, huge target returns, and a chance to “invest like an institution.”
Headline returns for these investments often look enticing, but research shows that those returns rarely reflect the actual economic experience of investors. For individual investors, the gap between perception and reality can be significant.
Tradeoffs to Consider
High Fees – Private Equity Funds often charge 2% fees on all assets plus an additional 20% of all profits. This introduces a significant hurdle that few private equity managers can overcome when compared to public equity investments. The funds we use to access public markets have an average fee of 0.2%. One-tenth the fee andno additional performance fee.
Misleading Returns – Internal rate of return (IRR) is commonly used to report private equity returns. However, IRR’s calculation depends heavily on the timing of cash flows to the investor. Private Equity firms can game these numbers by manipulating cash flows, making IRR return numbers not comparable to the return numbers you see from public markets. For example, the hypothetical return stream below has an IRR of 33% but an actual return on capital closer to 3%.
Investors should focus on the overall growth of their wealth, not return figures grounded in misleading return metrics.
Lack of Access/Liquidity – Private Equity funds typically have high investment minimums, long lockups, and capital call contracts that make it difficult for investors to allocate money to more than a handful of funds. This creates challenges in diversifying investments across the private equity industry, decreasing the likelihood of achieving reliable long-term investment outcomes. The lack of diversification turns investing in this asset class closer to gambling than a reliable long-term investment strategy.
An Evidence-Based Alternative
At Hill, we believe wealth is best built through broadly diversified, transparent, and low-cost portfolios that match your personal risk profile. Public markets offer exposure to the same economic engine as private equity – global economic growth and human innovation – without the high fees and illiquidity.
New research from Dimensional Fund Advisors puts the conclusion succinctly:
“Broadly diversified, transparent, and low-cost public market strategies provide investors with reliable access to global equity and credit risk premia – without the costs and opacity of private funds.”
We agree.
The Bottom Line
Private markets are often marketed as a path to superior returns, but the data tells a different story. Historically, once you adjust for fees, misleading returns, and illiquidity, private equity performance looks a lot like public stock market performance – just with more complexity and buzzwords.
The real question here is not whether private equity occasionally succeeds – it does. It’s whether it offers long-term, risk-adjusted, after-fee advantages over public markets.
The evidence suggests: not really.
Hill Investment Group Partners, LLC (HIG) is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information in this publication is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Nothing contained herein should be construed as individualized investment, tax, or financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed.
Investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Future returns may differ significantly from past returns due to market and economic conditions, among other factors.
Performance Disclosure (Hypothetical)
Hypothetical or model performance results, when presented, do not represent actual client performance. Hypothetical results do not reflect the impact of material economic or market factors that would have affected an adviser’s decision-making if managing actual assets. Hypothetical results are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as guarantees of future performance. Actual client results may differ.
Charts
Charts, graphs, formulas, probability visuals, and other illustrations included in this publication are intended to demonstrate concepts and provide context. They are not intended to be used alone to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. These illustrations provide limited information and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.
David Booth – In Plain English

Does the following quote sound familiar? Does it sound like a Hill team member? Something from one of these Monthly Journals over the last 20 years? It should, because it’s the foundation of what our clients and we believe about long-term investing success. Not surprisingly, it comes from David Booth, one of the Co-Founders of Dimensional.
– David Booth, LinkedIn, Oct. 14, 2025.
Over the years, I’ve had the privilege of meeting and hearing David speak on several occasions. He is a brilliant man who often sounds like a finance professor getting into the esoteric details of high-level math. You’d expect that of a University of Chicago (Booth School of Business…yes, as in David) Ph.D.
And that’s why I absolutely love this piece. David leaves academia behind and speaks from the heart about his investing experience in plain English that a grade-schooler will understand. Yes. A rare thing. It’s an ode to why all people should consider investing in the market, no matter your age or your net worth. And it’s brilliant.
Enjoy and be inspired to introduce someone you love and care about to the world of investing by starting here.
Of course, the Hill team stands ready to help share the power of long-term, evidence-based investing, too. Set up a time to talk here.
Hill Investment Group Partners, LLC (HIG) is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information in this publication is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Nothing contained herein should be construed as individualized investment, tax, or financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed.
Investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Future returns may differ significantly from past returns due to market and economic conditions, among other factors.
Finishing Strong, Building What’s Next
I’ve been thinking about Christmas a little differently this year.
In some ways, I feel like I’ve already had mine. And I don’t mean the holiday itself. I mean the everyday version. Each day, we get to do work that matters for families we genuinely care about. We help people make better decisions, reduce anxiety, and create order where there was once noise. That’s a gift, and one I don’t take lightly.
This season naturally invites gratitude. Gratitude for trust. For relationships that deepen over time. For the privilege of being invited into important conversations about life, money, and meaning. That sense of gratitude runs through everything you’ll find in this month’s Journal.
It’s also a time of momentum. We’re finishing strong, learning constantly, and quietly building what comes next. I’ll simply say this: the ideas taking shape for 2026 have the potential to be deeply valuable. Not louder. Not flashier. Just more useful, more beneficial, and more aligned with what long-term thinkers actually need. Stay tuned.
As always, thank you for being part of this community. Whether you’re a client, a friend of the firm, or simply curious about how we think, you belong here if you value sound judgment, long-term thinking, and progress over perfection.
I hope you enjoy this month’s Journal, and I wish you clarity and steady momentum in 2026 and beyond.
Take the Long View,

