Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Tag: Evidence-Based Investing

A Closer Look at Global Diversification

We frequently mention the importance of employing global diversification to manage investment risks while pursuing expected returns. The broad concept is simple: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

That said, beyond the simple adage, questions may remain. A recent Dimensional Fund Advisors paper addressed one of them: Since U.S. stocks have outperformed international and emerging markets stocks over the last several years, is it still worthwhile to invest worldwide?

Click to enlarge

If you’d rather skip to the compelling conclusion, the short answer is, yes, global diversification is still worth it. Not only do the last several years tell us nothing about the next several years, they could lull U.S. investors into a false sense of home-biased complacency. To emphasize this point, we need only point to the 2000–2009 “lost decade,” when the S&P 500 took a depressing 10-year dive, while most of the world’s indexes soared.

Bottom line: You never know where your next source of best returns will be found, so it’s best to go global – and stay that way.

Podcast Pick: AQR’s Analytical View of the Long View

We’re not the only ones encouraging investors around the globe to Take the Long View® with their investment strategy. AQR Capital Management’s like-minded perspective is one of the reasons we’ve been known to turn to some of their fund solutions, when appropriate for a client’s goals.

We also appreciate how their podcast series, hosted by Gabe Feghali and Dan Villalon, takes otherwise complex academic insights and translates them into what you need to know to build those insights into your own investing.

We’re particularly fond of their September podcast, “Taking Stock of Stock Myths.”

In this podcast, AQR’s team takes on three types of equity risks – home bias, market-timing and inflation – and busts some of the stock market myths that cause investors to succumb to them.

First, what is “risk” to begin with? We like their working definition, which describes risk as “how likely it is that you end up with a bad outcome over whatever investment horizon you care about.”

See what I mean about keeping it simple but substantive? Here are links to listen to the rest:

  • “Taking Stock of Stock Myths” (web browser)
  • “Taking Stock of Stock Myths” (iTunes)

Still Wondering: Wade or Plunge?

Having been an advisor through boom and bust markets alike, I can attest that some “Frequently Asked Questions” come and go. But for as long as I’ve been around to answer it, here’s one that has never grown old:

“I’ve got a lump sum of cash. Should I invest it all at once, or gradually, over time?”

I covered this question back in 2015, pointing to a 2004 Dimensional Fund Advisors analysis entitled, “To Wade or Plunge.” At the time, I said:

“Although it feels more comfortable to wade given the uncertainty inherent with markets, the evidence shows that, approximately two thirds of the time, you are better off taking the plunge.”

I’d say the same again today. If you’ve got a lump sum of cash you plan to invest in the market, you might as well put all of it to work sooner rather than later.

More recent analysis continues to support this approach. In 2016, Vanguard published a paper and podcast entitled, “Invest now or temporarily hold your cash?” This month, Vanguard’s senior investment strategist Andy Clarke updated his post on the subject, still concluding, “More often than not, it has paid to invest immediately.” He offered data demonstrating that this conclusion holds true across various global markets, and among stocks and bonds alike.

Just as I suggested in 2015, the biggest risk you face when plunging into the market isn’t financial. It’s whether you can ignore the regret you’ll probably feel if you happen to plunge at an inopportune time – i.e., just before the markets take a dive with your hard-earned cash. As long as you don’t act on your regret, it’s natural to feel it. Just remember to Take the Long View® with your actions. The long term trend is up, and the power of global capitalism is at your back.

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Featured entries from our Journal

Details Are Part of Our Difference

Embracing the Evidence at Anheuser-Busch – Mid 1980s

529 Best Practices

David Booth on How to Choose an Advisor

The One Minute Audio Clip You Need to Hear

Hill Investment Group